So how will it play out in 2020? And what else should the market be looking out for? We ask the experts.

Amdocs Open Network CTO Angela Logothetis

As incumbent communication service providers (CSPs) move to 5G, they will need more – and a broader range – of spectrum, ranging from low to high band. In 2020, we will see innovation in spectrum to deal with this demand.

Expect to see billions of dollars spent in auctions as operators learn where and how to best use spectrum such as millimetre wave (mmWave) to deploy technologies that increase efficiency and support “re-farmed” spectrum.

5G will also lead to new, disruptive players entering the market in smart cities, with new IoT devices and private networks. All these new players will also require spectrum, driving innovation in regulation and allocation.

Multiple countries, including the US, Japan, Germany and the UK are already regulating spectrum bands to be available through shared and priority access, and to be dedicated to enterprise applications.

As 5G begins to take hold in 2020, this will encourage innovation, disruption and competition. Traditional CSPs will evolve to open cloud networks, network-sharing, network-slicing and new spectrum to attain the cost structures, agility and innovation to compete on the new technology.

Samsung Corporate VP, UK and Ireland Conor Pierce

2020 will be an incredible year for the mobile industry: we’re on the cusp of some amazing innovations that will change the way we live, work and play.

Consumers are desperate to see how the smartphone will evolve in form and function as brands get innovative with materials and app functionality. The Samsung Galaxy Fold boldly pioneered a brand new category of smartphone that has set the tone for the industry and piqued everyone’s interest in what comes next.

The smartphone will become a remote control for our homes, linking us into a more connected way of living in which smart appliances will begin to learn our preferences and operate as a sixth sense.

By this year, most Samsung home electrical products will be IoT-ready and able to connect to its SmartThings Platform, so the smartphone will take on a new role as a home life assistant.

Having shipped the most 5G-ready handsets in 2019 with the S10+ 5G and Note10+ 5G, Samsung is excited about the possibilities for gaming, VR and the smart enterprise.

This is a huge leap for connectivity and the second digital revolution is upon us; enhanced connectivity will be the catalyst for major innovation in apps and connectivity.

Chargifi CEO and co-founder Dan Bladen

Never more than now has convenient access to power been in greater demand as a result of our ‘always-on’ lifestyles, with consumer demands shifting to prioritise power over anything else.

According to the latest survey by the Wireless Power Consortium, ‘battery anxiety’ remains high and has increased year-on-year, with 73 per cent of consumers experiencing it.

With Apple announcing last year that all devices from the iPhone 8 upwards were being shipped with wireless charging, this puts the number of wireless charging devices at around one billion at the time of writing.

As we enter the new decade, all the signs are that this is set to increase further, with more and more consumers carrying wireless-charging-enabled devices under the expectation of being able to power up seamlessly.

Indeed, the number of such devices was expected to rise to around 1.7 billion by the start of 2020.

Such charging will, meanwhile, become faster and we’ll see rumours about laptop wireless charging. Research has revealed that 50 per cent of employees expect wireless charging in their office space.

This type of demand gives businesses an opportunity to monetise on power, with the deployment of a cloud-managed, smart wireless charging service able to increase engagement, satisfaction and loyalty, enhancing service and driving revenue.

O2 UK Chief operating officer Derek McManus

5G itself will not arrive in big-bang fashion, but incrementally over the coming years as new networks are built out, standards are set, spectrum is allocated and new compatible equipment becomes available.

But with networks now live in many parts of the country, 2020 will be the year we’ll see the emergence of many exciting and transformative applications for businesses large and small across a whole range of sectors. The first 5G capabilities to become available this year will be greater bandwidth and faster data transfer speeds, with improved latency.

Enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) will enable remote employees and mobile workers to enjoy seamless, high-definition video-conferencing on 5G-enabled smartphones, while engineers can harness 5G-enabled VR to faster diagnose faults from a central base, thereby reducing costs for the business.

5G also shifts wireless connectivity from something we experience through personal devices towards an integrated infrastructure of buildings, transport and utilities, providing unprecedented benefits for citizens, businesses and cities alike.

This ubiquitous connectivity will become the backbone of our smart cities, helping to make energy grids more resilient, slash unproductive commutes and free up time in our overstretched public services.

As the benefits of 5G become increasingly clear, I expect to see improved coordination and cooperation between regulators, governments, operators and vendors to help maximise its impact.

Pangea System architect Dr Arslan Usman

Now that all four UK MNOs have dipped their toes in the 5G waters, they’ll be competing to claim the most widespread coverage. This is great news for end users and providers alike: 5G connectivity sooner and in more locations is a definite win, and a big step towards the Digital Britain we’re all looking forward to.

Work can now start on the small cell base stations that will enable dense 5G coverage beyond key city deployments. And it’s now confirmed that we’ll see another Ofcom spectrum auction in the sub-60GHz band, which will further steer operators’ 5G developments.

In terms of devices, the big focus has been on 5G-ready mobile phones; but in 2020, manufacturers will join the fray with routers using the technology that can compete with fixed-line Ethernet speeds of up to 1Gbps.

We’ll also see the debut of IoT devices that support 5G by the end of 2020, focusing on network-slicing and efficient power consumption. But the star of the show, of course, will be super-fast 5G speeds.

In the meantime, we’ll see a lot more 5G trial solutions and demonstrations, such as Vodafone’s cross-country haptic rugby and Three’s live holographic ad in 2019.

Keep an eye on the automotive industry too: cellular V2X (vehicle-to-everything) tech is going to make leaps and bounds with the near- zero latency of 5G. Smart cars will make some serious breakthroughs with assisted driving and accident reduction, and we’ll be one big step closer to fully self-driving vehicles.

uSwitch Head of commercial broadband and mobiles Ernest Doku

2020 is a year in which all those esoteric, lofty promises of 5G will finally come into sharp focus for consumers.

We are expecting to see providers and MVNOs bring more fully formed and compelling propositions to market, with live networks stretching their legs in terms of use cases, speeds, coverage – and, more importantly, competition – in a meaningful way.

We will no doubt see a second wave of devices supporting 5G technology, including Apple’s. That means the race for faster speeds can begin in earnest and expand beyond the flagship sector.

This is great timing, given that end-of- contract notifications stand to potentially shake up the market in a huge way and introduce more competition, spurring disengaged consumers into action to reassess their options.

Three-year contracts – both to help hold onto such wavering customers and subsidise rising device costs – look set to become the norm.

Folding phones will continue to pervade the market in terms of column inches over consumer uptake, but will remain a curiosity until pricing is relevant to the average customer.

Lastly, fixed-mobile convergence will continue to be a big power play, and will serve to blur the lines of connectivity as broadband and mobile are bundled even more tightly as a utility for data-hungry customers. All those streaming services have to end up on our phones somehow.

GfK Director of technology Imran Choudhary

In 2020, we can expect to see the continued ramp up and rollout of 5G. This will come in two forms: firstly, from networks as they look to promote new services; and secondly, from OEMs, which will undoubtedly launch more 5G-capable devices.

As a result, we can perhaps expect to see a much needed boon for OEMs and networks as consumers come to take advantage of services using the new technology and acquire 5G-capable devices – bucking the wider trend of consumers holding on to their devices for ever longer periods of time.

In addition, we can expect a push on wider connectivity towards the end of the year as OEMs of devices such as wearables, laptops and tablets look to take advantage of 5G and the additional connectivity opportunities.

The year ahead will see a continued focus from Chinese challenger brands on the UK as they look to grow their footholds in the market.

From our research, less consumers are saying that it’s very important to know where and how their products are made, meaning Chinese players could have greater traction in 2020 given their focus and change in consumer attitudes.

This year, we can also expect to see more foldable devices coming to market as the technology to produce such devices improves and costs potentially begin to settle. We can expect at least a handful of foldable devices from a variety of OEMs in 2020 as this innovative space begins to reveal which type of folding devices can be made for mass consumer appeal.

Improved software and OS developments will see more AI arriving in mobile devices and integrated into functions such as taking pictures, while there will also be more development of AI assistants from the likes of Siri and Google Assistant. This will be coupled with continued growth in smart speakers as big brands and OEMs continue to drive this segment, which appears to have plenty of headroom to grow.

In 2020, we may continue to see more shifts in consumer attitudes as segments such as Gen Z find their feet in wider society and grow their purchasing power. This, coupled with wider social trends, will have an impact on what our industry does to cater for dynamic consumer segments.

Finally, we can expect to see further proposition development from MVNOs and MNOs, with more converged offerings coming to the market from those offering dual, triple and quad-play propositions.

We could see the arrival of more sub-brands and even more MVNOs in a crowded space, pushing the industry to focus on loyalty and reward mechanics in a bid to keep consumers happy in a post text-to-switch marketplace. We’re excited to see how 2020 unfolds.

Cobham Wireless VP of business development and technology Ingo Flomer 

For many building owners, there’s currently not the financial incentive to create the kind of 5G user experience touted by the press.

Most of us are happy today with the performance we receive when using our phones, or else don’t really give it a second thought. This will change when 5G devices become more affordable and more widespread, and new use cases are developed. This means building owners will have to be ready.

This year, they will request that current wireless coverage systems are easily upgradeable to 5G, offering the perfect cost- effective solution.

Venue owners and operators want longevity and return on investment for purchases; what they don’t want is to have to buy a whole new system in a year or two as demand for 5G in-building coverage grows.

From a technical standpoint, upgrading platforms to 5G will mean wider frequency bands (such as 400MHz in the 3.5GHz band). I expect 3.5GHz to be in most indoor environments, though this is not about increasing coverage but boosting capacity.

Ethernet-based protocols will, meanwhile, be used to increase data-transport efficiency.

Excalibur Communications CEO Peter Boucher

It’s an exciting time for telecoms and businesses now that superfast broadband and 5G are really here and rolling out.

I think that in 2020 we will all be working hard with customers to develop a new generation of services and applications using IoT, which will make a lot of things possible.

The telecoms industry has also been talking about unified comms (UC) for the last ten years, but I think this will become a reality in 2020.

With Microsoft Teams now being properly voice-enabled, the market finally comes together, integrating multiple mediums of communication across multiple devices.

MATRIXX Software Co-founder and VP of marketing Jennifer Kyriakakis

We predict we’ll see a huge uptick in 5G announcements this year from carriers bringing the technology into specific locations and creating ‘smart spaces’.

This is similar to what we’ve seen Verizon announce with NFL stadiums and Vodafone with London’s Gatwick airport.

While operators will continue to struggle with marketing 5G direct to consumers, the immediate opportunity will be the massive connectivity of devices, franchise businesses and people in transit driving substantial revenue from locations such as airports, train stations, conference facilities, theme parks and stadiums, where there is a high density of users and traffic.

Meanwhile, smartphones may start to lose equity in our digital life as wearables take centre stage.

As the industry waits with bated breath for the 5G iPhone to drop, 2020 will be the year in which we start to see more momentum with alternative devices.

Major tech companies, including Amazon, Google and Facebook, are working on an array of wearable devices that will offer consumers the same touchpoints to information, such as video, AR, VR, apps and search.

Expect to see an onslaught of watches, glasses, rings and bracelets that leverage 5G replace many capabilities of your smartphone.

CCS Insight Director of consumer and connectivity Kester Mann

Another big spectrum auction looms this spring, and it’s bound to be keenly contested once again. This one will be significant for the sale of low-band airwaves at 700MHz, which are best suited to providing widespread mobile coverage.

After fledgling network launches last year, 2020 will see 5G technology gain traction – with uptake driven by rapidly falling device prices and continued network expansion.

CCS Insight expects there to be nearly five million 5G connections in the UK by the end of 2020. With all four networks going live in 2019, keep an eye out for the first launches of the technology by MVNOs.

We should also closely monitor Three’s efforts in 5G fixed wireless. With an enviable spectrum holding, it believes it can make inroads into the home broadband market, but questions remain as to how the technology will perform and whether people would switch to a provider without a fixed- line heritage. Having delayed its 5G rollout in 2019 despite making significant noise, Three has much to prove this year.

In another hectic year ahead for UK telecoms, watch out too for expanding offers based on unlimited mobile data, an acceleration in convergence strategies, Vodafone’s continued turnaround, a ramping-up of competition on “full-fibre” broadband and initial impact from Ofcom’s recent initiatives – notably text-to- switch regulation.

IDC Research manager Marta Pinto

Unsurprisingly, there will be a lot of growth around 5G.

As auctions take place and carriers roll out networks and services – in whichever form of partnership, shared infrastructure or nationalisation of key infrastructure – and consumers start experiencing the benefits of 5G, selling hardware will become easier.

The introduction of more models in different price ranges will diversify the current offering and appeal to more consumers, with all eyes on Apple’s anticipated September launch. Hints in recent announcements from Qualcomm raise expectations of a 5G iOS device being launched within nine months.

The refurbished device market is, meanwhile, not just a consequence of market demand, but also a profitable way for responsible disposal of electronic devices. This market is forecast to continue flourishing and make first-hand sales more challenging.

While the dominant design is still the rectangular unibody device, the invention of the notch, the punch hole and pop-up cameras have seen smartphones evolve and now move on to the creation of the foldable device.

New form factors are expected to continue to show up in the market, challenging the status quo. As with other innovations, these devices are expected to continue as marketing pieces rather than mass market phones – at least until the technologies mature and price drops make them more affordable.

Separately, the evolution of 5G chipsets and batteries will be paired with eSIM technology that allows users to connect on the go. This will in turn require service providers to reinvent data plans, making them shareable across devices.

In the area of always-on connectivity, it is worth noting the opportunity for WiFi 6. 5G will be a slow rollout in some geographies, but WiFi 6 solutions can help improve the user’s connected experience.

ROKiT Phones CEO Michael Coombes

What a year 2019 was: consumers revelled in industry firsts, including the triple- camera set-up with wide lens and 5G-ready phones, and hardware improvements like greatly extended battery life.

We also saw exciting new players shake up the market with innovative launches.

Looking ahead, 2020 sees some equally exciting moves on the horizon. R&D teams have, for example, been working on innovations including the return of foldable phones and the rise of 64MP cameras.

These will come with a hefty price point, which will continue to eclipse £1,000 plus. We expect to see more consumers question the wisdom of spending four figures on a device with market leaders, when disruptors are offering the same or very similar features for a fraction of the price.

Consumers are already able to do so much on their mobiles, from watching movies to making contactless payments, and market intelligence suggests this will only increase.

BICS CMO and VP of mobility and IoT business Mikael Schachne 

People and ‘things’ on the move will drive 5G roaming – and operator revenues.

2020 will be (another!) 5G-focused year. More roaming trials for the technology will be fuelled by both consumer and business use cases, enabling next-generation connectivity to go global.

Last summer, we reported that data roaming traffic across Asia had surged 245 per cent over the 12 months to June, an uplift driven in large part by increased adoption of roaming, and new tariffs plans, travel SIMs and IoT devices across the continent.

But this isn’t limited to Asia: we also found that Q1 2019 outbound roaming traffic from Asia to Europe and the Middle East increased 88 per cent compared to Q1 2018, and inbound roaming volumes from the same regions grew 81 per cent. As 5G adoption increases, roaming traffic for that technology will follow a similar pattern, surging on an international scale.

Subscribers are enjoying more international travel and expecting the same quality of service wherever they are. And sectors such as the connected automotive industry and consumer electronics will become increasingly reliant on cross-border, ultra-reliable, low-latency connectivity.

Monetising 5G roaming will be a priority for operators, with industrial IoT (IIoT) presenting a means of doing just that. Companies operating in that sector have the funds and financial incentives to invest in and pay for 5G connectivity and, as many have a global footprint, will also be able to invest in and pay for 5G roaming.

We’ll see IIoT benefit from remote tracking, robotics, efficiencies in productivity and project management, and automation, while operators can unlock a major revenue opportunity and continue to monetise a core part of their service offering.

Global Wireless Solutions CEO Paul Carter 

The ongoing UK rollout of 5G will certainly command plenty of column inches in 2020.

The results that we’ve already obtained from our first 5G testing across London show that customers have plenty of reasons to be excited about deployment.

Expect operator investments in 5G to seriously ramp up as they deploy the technology both alongside and integrated with their 4G networks in more locations.

We shouldn’t expect 5G small cells to be blanketing the UK any time soon, as operators will continue to build out 4G to fill in those challenging coverage gaps across the country.

The net result will be the development of a more holistic and contiguous wireless network, meaning key applications such as IoT will come more into focus as the public realises their potential.

Meanwhile, this will be the year that the industry finally moves away from speed as the benchmark currency of choice.

Historical network performance testing shows that all operators currently provide mobile internet quick enough to stream video content and upload files on the go.

The focus in 2020 must now be to deliver a reliable, consistent experience that lets customers call, text, browse the web and stream content wherever they are without disruption. That’s why our OneScore rankings factor in which aspects of mobile network performance are most important in people’s daily lives.

Bastion Insurance Director of sales John Fannon

I predict a significant growth in all aspects of the recycling and second-life ecosystem during the course of 2020 as repairers seek to obtain more donor parts and global demand increases.

The good news is that independent dealers still have the edge over networks when it comes to providing a complete communications proposition, which is where they will continue to win.

There is little point in simply being a mobile dealer any more, as customers can get that from any network store or Carphone Warehouse. I believe the challenge for a lot of dealers will be how they take their business to the next step, when many will have reached a plateau and the investment cost of growing to the next level will prove prohibitive to some.

Despite this, the industry remains buoyant due to the constant new opportunities presented with additional products and services, and will continue to be so.

PP Foresight Analyst Paolo Pescatore

The UK is thriving with significant investment in next-generation networks.

It feels like we are in a golden era of connectivity that promises to transform the way we interact and engage with devices in the future.

With 5G now here, 2020 will all be about scale. Telcos are preparing their networks to cope with the impact of the new iPhone 5G, which is widely expected to launch this year. Most, if not all, new devices will support 5G and telcos will push it aggressively in the enterprise segment.

Convergence represents the next battleground in the UK, as one of the few areas of future growth for all providers.

In a rapidly converging landscape, it is paramount for players to differentiate beyond price. With this in mind, they need to offer a range of services including TV. This can prove an effective strategy in subscriber acquisition and, more importantly, retaining users through engagement.

Further M&A activity cannot be ruled out. Three UK might have a new owner and we may see a joint venture between Virgin Media and Vodafone at some point. Also, who will Comcast buy and can O2 continue to thrive as a pure-play mobile provider?

BT will hope its network assets give it the edge, while Vodafone continues to disrupt and maintain its growing momentum.

Fascinating times lie ahead in a vibrant industry that has regained its mojo, despite the background of political and economic uncertainty.

Doro UK and Ireland Managing director Peter Marsden

The mobile industry certainly had an interesting 2019, with exciting announcements by key players both old and new.

And much like last year, 2020 will see the industry remain highly competitive, with further consolidation among the key players intensifying the contest even more.

To win in this environment, mobile companies will need to own a distinct segment of the market with clear points of difference to the competition.

Hardware vendors will be increasingly focused on creating additional value by broadening service propositions to support their hardware offerings, which will come in many shapes and sizes. The successful ones will be those that bring brilliant benefits to the end user.

To outshine the competition, companies will have to drive greater efficiency while offering further flexibility.

Like every year in this industry, we can expect 2020 to be as fast-moving and exciting as ever.

Mobile Phones Direct Managing director Richard Baxendale

The rollout of 5G will continue to gather pace, with more cities and towns able to receive the benefits of this new technology.

The anticipated launch of a 5G handset from Apple will help to drive uptake with a much wider audience.

Growth of SIM-only propositions will, meanwhile, continue and we’ll start to see consumer credit and financing playing a bigger role in the way consumers buy the latest and greatest handsets.

The market can expect to see a lot more innovation in hardware in 2020, where there will be much more of a step change in form factor and functionality versus the incremental improvements we’ve seen in the past 12 months.

Exertis Commercial and services director for mobile Rik Hubbard 

Both Gartner and IDC have predicted that smartphone sales will increase next year, driven by 5G. The CES and MWC events are likely to provide evidence of that with smartphone announcements.

More foldable phones and dual-display devices are likely to be available from vendors other than Samsung and Huawei.

We are also set to see continued growth in streaming of entertainment and gaming on mobile devices, with subsequent growth in subscription services.

Multiplayer games are taking off on mobile, with 5G enhancing the gaming experience through its faster speed and low latency. AR accessories will come to market, taking advantage of 5G.

In the corporate market, expect to see more interest in device-as-a-service and trade-in programmes as companies take advantage of the benefits these bring in terms of keeping their devices top of range, making the most of the residual value

of their assets, recognising the need for sustainability and helping move to opex- based and subscription services.

ABI Research Analyst Stephanie Tomsett

While deployment of 5G connectivity for consumers started in 2019, this year will be important in determining its performance for enterprise.

With current 5G deployments resting on enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) capabilities, the most important release for enterprise verticals – such as industrial manufacturing and smart transportation – will be Release 16.

This will be frozen in the first half of 2020, defining key aspects such as time- sensitive networking and reliable and enhanced positioning capabilities.

More and more countries are, meanwhile, developing flexible spectrum models that will allow enterprise customers to set up and operate their own private 5G networks.

Most importantly, the US Citizen Broadband Radio Service (CBRS), which opened for enterprise use in September 2019, will be offered to even more businesses, while Germany will start to award local 5G spectrum to enterprises at an affordable rate.

With 5G becoming more relevant to enterprise verticals, a number of private 5G network deployments also look set to kick off during 2020, further increasing in the coming year and beyond.

That, however, rests upon the timely freeze of Release 16, with large players such as Bosch, Mercedes and Siemens eagerly waiting to bring 5G to the factory floor. Patience is not endless, so they all have contingency plans in place should there be any major delays.

While wearables benefit from cellular connectivity, giving them greater freedom from being tethered to smartphones and allowing people to use them when on the go, 5G wearables are not expected to be seen in 2020.

Component manufacturers have yet to announce any 5G chipsets for such products and are not expected to do so in 2020 because the market potential is small, with few device shipments compared to other mobile devices.

The requirement for the technology is low, as 4G is capable enough to support them, and there is the added complexity of fitting the required 5G components within a small form factor.

Parallel Wireless CEO Steve Papa

Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson will lose out to open-minded vendors.

The traditional radio access network (RAN) vendors – such as Huawei, Nokia and Ericsson – risk becoming outdated in networks demanding openness and flexibility. The closed nature of their technology means operators are unable to use multiple vendors in their networks, which means it’s difficult and expensive to adapt and upgrade technology once it has been deployed.

As we enter the 5G era, this traditional, closed model for building the RAN is no longer sustainable. In developed markets, the race to deliver 5G is in full swing, with operators spending considerable amounts building out their next generation networks. They need a new approach that will allow them to deploy and cost-effectively run 5G technology alongside their 2G, 3G an 4G networks.

Last year saw significant moves towards OpenRAN, illustrated by Vodafone’s announcement that it would be opening its entire RAN in Europe to OpenRAN vendors during the TIP Summit.

In 2020, the momentum behind OpenRAN will continue to grow as other operators realise it can help them reduce costs, drive more competition between technology vendors and stimulate higher levels of innovation in the industry.

Pier Insurance Managing director Toby Stubbington 

Telecoms will continue to see consolidation, with focused buy-and- build strategies by a number of funded companies in pursuit of a strategy aimed at increased market share and product diversification.

A focus on margins will mean that cross-sell and upsell from relevant bolt- on products such as insurance will be important.

5G and SD-WAN technology will continue to expand, offering greater networking potential and control – as well as services.

However, cybersecurity needs, threats relating to data loss and consumer awareness over who owns data will continue to grow. Unfortunately – and inevitably – there will be data breaches that will cost businesses financially and reputation-wise, the sector needs to continue to build resilience and products to counter these risks.

In a nod to the heyday of mobile growth, we will see the launch of several flippable phones on the market. Convergence of connectivity products, networks and AI will also help to offer seamless potential across B2C and B2B.

The year 2019 saw a couple of big new innovations dominate the headlines, with the advent of 5G and foldable phones.

On the 5G front, EE led the way as the first UK operator to launch the technology in May, with the other networks following one by one. There have also been innovations in hardware, with foldable phones entering the market.

Elsewhere, the second-hand smartphone market continued to grow in 2019, providing dealers and distributors in the UK with plenty of opportunities.

Chinese smartphone vendors, meanwhile, continued to land in the UK, with Oppo entering at the beginning of the year. But among the Chinese players, it was Huawei that made all the headlines this year… and not for the right reasons.

Mobile News spoke to some of the industry’s key names to gather their highlights of 2019.

CCS Insight chief of research Ben Wood

A key milestone in 2019 was the arrival of 5G. In contrast with 4G, the UK was one of the world’s first countries to deploy the technology.

EE was first out of the starting gate, as it was with 4G. Vodafone followed soon after, and we’ve since seen all the major networks announce their 5G plans. Three made bold claims about having game-changing spectrum and ‘real 5G’ in August, but failed to deliver on its promises, delaying availability to 2020.

In contrast, O2 went for a low-key launch, leaving the main battle for 5G mindshare between EE and Vodafone.

If you know where to go, it is possible to get eye-watering 5G speeds, but it’s still early days with limited coverage.

One issue that surfaced in 2019 was anti- technologists who waged war on 5G, spreading misinformation about the health implications. I fear this may be something that rumbles on for years to come.

The other big 2019 highlight for me was the arrival of foldables. Royole was first to announce a device, but the Samsung Galaxy Fold and Huawei Mate X really put the category on the map at the Mobile World Congress in February.

Most recently, these have been joined by Motorola’s reboot of the iconic Razr. Samsung had some challenges with the Fold, but now it has been relaunched with a few tweaks, it has emerged as the most credible device to date.

Huawei won the plaudits for the Mate X, though we’ve yet to see it hit the shelves beyond some very limited distribution in China. The year ended well, with the unveiling of the Razr – probably the foldable that has excited me most so far – and there will doubtless be an avalanche of devices in 2020.

Another notable development was the arrival of unlimited data tariffs in the UK. Three had been offering these for a while, but Vodafone joining the party quickly saw rivals follow. This means that the UK probably ends 2019 as the one of the most competitive mobile markets on the planet.

O2 chief operating officer Derek McManus

2019 has been a real turning point for the mobile industry.

Firstly, most operators launched their 5G networks. The power of this next-generation network is going to unlock a world of possibilities for our economy and society.

We have been planning our intelligence- led rollout for many years, and I’m excited about continuing to use data and insight to deploy 5G where our customers need it most.

Secondly, the UK government pledged its support to a shared rural network, the significance of which cannot be understated. The SRN will virtually eradicate partial not spots and reduce total not spot landmass to just three per cent, providing a much-needed boost to rural communities and bridging the country’s digital divide.

The government must now continue to accelerate its planning policy reforms of recent years to put mobile connectivity on a par with other essential services and make network extension more efficient and more deliverable.

Mr Mobile managing director Bobby Singh

This year has seen lots of changes in the industry and the retail landscape in general.

I think 5G has been the biggest news, but it’s still early days in terms of consumers understanding the difference it can make. Only the latest devices have 5G capability, and Apple doesn’t even have one yet!

Apple itself has seen a lot more competition from new brands becoming more popular and established, with their developments in features and aggressive pricing giving them market share.

Efficiency in power delivery, wireless charging and USB-C capabilities are becoming more mainstream as consumers really see the difference these can make. This is especially the case when it comes to speed and convenience, with households increasingly becoming smart homes with tech everywhere.

Lastly, even the slow movers are now coming on board with multichannel retail, meaning retailers are seeing rising competition. One big step they are taking is becoming more responsible and aware of the impacts of plastic and other non-recyclable materials on the atmosphere and environment. By making small changes to the products they buy and sell, they can have a massive impact on things like the amount of waste going into landfill.

These steps collectively will help make a massive difference in counteracting negative effects to make the world a better place.

GfK global director Imran Choudhary 

A key highlight in 2019 was the arrival of 5G. With rollout now well under way, the first commercial propositions have been brought to consumers, making this a landmark moment in the development of 5G as consumers and industry become aware of what it can do. Operators are in the process of testing and refining their propositions while expanding their rollout.

On the device side, we saw the first 5G-capable models land in the market. It feels like we have only scratched the surface here, as many brands are yet to launch a 5G variant in their range. But despite the lack of hardware so far, it’s been an exciting start to the potential of our 5G future.

Throughout 2019, we saw the pace pick up on proposition development among operators, with MVNOs continuing to think outside the traditional box in their split tariff deals.

These innovative approaches from MVNOs have led to a market-wide refresh on key propositions. The ‘consumer is king’, as the saying goes – and that has never felt more true from a propositions perspective than in 2019, especially with the arrival of ‘text-to-switch’

in the summer. That development has helped maintain competition in an already highly competitive marketplace, ensuring consumers get real value and welfare.

This year also saw continued growth in the number of challenger brands operating in the UK. Chinese brands in particular continue to flock to the UK in a bid to disrupt the status quo. The mid-tier and entry-level price points have seen a real shake-up, with the arrival of some new players in these areas. This is again giving consumers more choice and better specs at these price points.

Meanwhile, you can’t have gone through 2019 without hearing about folding phones. With several announcements at MWC, the arrival of these devices really has been a breath of fresh air. While they are few and far between at the moment, and potentially not tipped for groundbreaking orders, they herald a path of innovation that is most welcome and ripe for refinement.

Our Perspective director Jason Kemp

The year began with an upbeat CES and MWC, with folding phones being lauded as a revolution in hardware development. However, until Motorola announced the new Razr last month, it has been more hype than reality.

We’ve seen Xiaomi and Oppo struggle to make a dent in the market, while Huawei was dealt a devastating blow from the US administration. Apple and Samsung continue to have a stranglehold on the market, and buyers seem to be taking a conservative approach to their product ranges.

Networks are looking at 5G to reinvigorate the market, but with a lack of coverage (and iPhone compatibility), I don’t really see the market taking off until late 2020. It seems to have been another good year for MVNOs, with Sky Mobile reaching the million customer mark.

Being a mature industry, we’ve seen more mergers and acquisitions than start-ups, with Data Select being sold to Westcoast and numerous B2B resellers selling out to larger companies. There have also been a few casualties that have ceased to trade.

In summary, 2019 has been a ‘treading water’ exercise for the industry, with a lack of innovation and economic uncertainty stifling the market. The most significant ray of light has been the continued growth of the second-hand and refurbished market.

Bastion Insurance director of sales John Fannon

As expected, 2019 has seen more consolidation and rationalisation of partners – the recent purchase/merger between Westcoast and Data Select being a case in point.

I see more of this continuing in 2020. In particular, it seems that telecoms players are buying or seeking to buy an IT element to their business, or expand upon one if they already have it. I believe this demonstrates increasing customer demand for communications as opposed to just telecoms now.

That trend has presented great opportunities for the fleet of foot in 2019, and will continue to do so.

Another factor in 2019 was the noticeable slowdown in new handset sales as those in both the B2B and consumer channels either kept their handsets for longer or refreshed them with recycled products. There is no longer a ‘round the block’ queue at the launch of the latest Apple iPhone, as users realise that the drip-feed of technological advances isn’t the huge leap forward every year that it once (possibly) was.

CCS Insight director of consumer and connectivity Kester Mann

Inevitably, 5G grabbed many of the headlines in 2019 as all four UK operators launched commercial networks. After the delays and controversy that surrounded the introduction of 4G, it has been hugely encouraging to observe the UK emerge as a global front runner this time around.

For me, though, the bigger story among UK mobile operators has been moves into offering unlimited data. Of course, this has always been a big play for Three, but Vodafone’s launch of speed-tiered unlimited plans became the catalyst for a new battleground to emerge.

EE and O2 quickly followed suit, meaning that all four networks now offer some form of all-you-can-eat data tariff.

Another highlight was an agreement between the four UK mobile operators to establish a shared rural network. The move – a rare example of successful collaboration between telcos – aims to boost UK mobile coverage to 95 per cent of the land mass by 2025 and will be cheered by rural communities.

This year will also be remembered as being one of renewed vigour at Vodafone after a turbulent few years. The operator’s turnaround efforts received a huge boost when it secured an MVNO deal with Virgin Media in November.

Other major stories in 2019 include a ramping up of competition in full-fibre broadband, the launch of Ofcom’s new text- to-switch regulation and a new brand identity unveiled at BT.

IDC research manager Marta Pinto

2019 was a very busy year for telcos and device manufacturers. The debut of the first 5G service and devices marked the long- awaited start of the new network generation.

In May, EE was first to launch the new technology in the UK, and Vodafone levelled the game by introducing the first 5G roaming service in its markets.

Samsung had a stellar year after several darker quarters. It was the only brand with more than three 5G-enabled devices in the market and is at the forefront of the European brand rankings.

Apple, which saw Sir Jonathan Ive leave the company, held back on releasing a 5G handset. That did not, however, prevent Apple from having a very good start with the iPhone 11 and 11 Pro Max, while sales of the iPhone 8 and 6S helped the brand keep its market share.

However, Huawei was the hottest topic of 2019. It was not the first time the US banned a Chinese brand – with ZTE coming before – but this time around the impact was bigger. This is because rollouts of 5G networks in Europe were relying on the upgrade of Huawei’s 4G gear at lower cost. The initial impact of the US ban on Huawei was an immediate halt in sales, hitting the brand’s market share more remarkably in 3Q19.

Meanwhile, Oppo expanded its footprint in Europe and its device portfolio, as well as striking up sponsorship partnerships that now include some of the most prestigious championships in the region.

Another big event this year was the launch of foldable and flexible displays.

PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore

2019 will be remembered for the UK starting to regain its network leadership. It is one of the few countries to have all operators offer a 5G service within a space of a few months. To see how the new technology is evolving far more quickly than 4G is truly remarkable.

There is also a fibre frenzy going on in the UK, with everyone jumping on the bandwagon in the race to deploy fibre broadband at scale. The early moves to offer 5G have undoubtedly brought forward plans for many providers to upgrade home broadband services towards gigabit connections.

Undoubtedly, competition is heating up and there’s no shortage of investment. This is great news for UK plc and the country’s digital infrastructure. It was about time that the traditional providers accelerated their own plans to keep up with the altnets such as CityFibre, WightFibre, Gigaclear, KCOM, Pure Broadband, Toob and the many others emerging from out of the blue.

However, huge uncertainty remains given that margins are squeezed and the business model for 5G is unclear. This is further compounded by moves to unlimited services.

GWS CEO and founder Paul Carter 

While 5G may have grabbed the headlines in 2019, the past year has been about much more than next-generation networks in the mobile sector.

UK operators have been busy deploying 4G sites across the country, as well as turning on advanced LTE features. Additionally, the government has joined with mobile network operators to put steps in place to address rural coverage gaps. All of this is aimed at ensuring reliability of coverage across the country, which we’re consistently told by both businesses and consumers is their top priority when it comes to the mobile network experience.

What we hear from our focus groups and consumer survey findings is that customer expectations around networks have significantly evolved. Just six or seven years since it was first launched in the UK, consumers have come to consider the performance of 4G as the new minimum standard for network technology.

To stay successful, operators need to tune in to these expectations and encourage the government to foster sensible regulations to help network builds, particularly when it comes to the needs of the higher 5G frequency bands.

Radius Payment Solutions managing director Ray Ferris  

This year has seen all three major networks roll out 5G at pace, with device manufacturers scrambling to keep in step.

5G is now live in over 22 towns or cities from at least one of the major providers, which is super- exciting for UK business. Ultra-fast bandwidth is just one of the benefits, and far greater capacity in congested areas such as railway hubs will mean a better user experience.

There is no doubt that UK MNOs are far better prepared for 5G than previous iterations such as 3G and 4G, having learnt some valuable lessons about carrier aggregation and call quality from earlier rollouts and technology upgrades.

This all bodes well for having a superfast infrastructure in place for when Apple releases its first 5G handset in the UK – with Apple launches often seen as the catalyst for mass uptake of a service.

Network operators have been busy introducing double-data deals into the B2B market and allowing more genuine ‘unlimited’ plans that offer greater degrees of tariff management and avoidance of bill shock. This in turn has meant that the channel has had to show greater agility around service and digital capabilities to differentiate in the congested marketplace.

Hosted telephony and unified communications as a service (UCaaS) continue to grow rapidly in the SME segment, and the likes of BT are pushing customers to consider SIP and alternative options as the ISDN switch-off looms on the horizon.

All the above means a growing market opportunity for the right providers with excellent services and innovative products, with the potential for technology to lead growth in uncertain political times.

Excalibur Communications CEO Peter Boucher

In 2019, the UK woke up to the fact that poor internet speeds were holding businesses back – large and small. This year, we have seen the rollout of gigabit-capable infrastructure to reverse this trend. Full-fibre networks will bring huge economic benefits to the country, with an estimated £120 billion over 15 years.

Cybersecurity has, meanwhile, hit the headlines far too often. The industry has had to raise its game in not only protecting itself, but also equipping clients to reduce their exposure to attacks and incursions.

This year, companies have become aware of the importance of evaluating risks and putting a security strategy in place. There is a great deal that can be done to protect businesses from potential attacks in addition to having up-to-date software. We have realised that training staff to be cyber savvy is a key part of any strategy.

Uplands Mobiles managing director Paul Hooper

In everyone’s home, and many offices, are smart speakers, with 2019 seeing a massive increase in these great IoT gadgets.

Many of us have our very own internet- connected speakers with integrated digital assistants, and it was the fastest-growing connected device in 2019: over 160 million units were sold globally, up from less than 100 million in 2018. The smart speaker market is expected to grow by more than 60 per cent year-on-year to a staggering £5.6 billion in revenue.

There is a lot to look back on in 2019, which shaped up to be a massive year for comms companies – but most significant must be the emergence of 5G and the thought of what is to come for countless potential 5G projects set to roll out across the UK.

We are seeing more and more new use cases in cloud computing and IoT, and will see even more when coverage becomes ubiquitous.

5G isn’t the answer for all, but it sparks the imagination and starts conversations, driving demand for high capacity and low latency connectivity. Smart cities, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things – these technologies are already starting to revolutionise business and, indeed, the way we live today.

Mobile Phones Direct managing director Richard Baxendale

This year, we continued to see the migration of sales from bricks-and-mortar retail to online, with more customers than ever choosing online retailers for the purchase of their new phone.

We’ve also seen users’ insatiable appetite for data continue to grow with the consumption of ‘content on the go’, driving huge growth in the purchase of larger data bundles of 50 to 100GB plus.

The launch of 5G services from all four UK networks (albeit with limited population coverage and device range) has breathed some real excitement back into the sector as organisations start to understand the benefits the technology will bring to their customers.

Exertis commercial and services director Rik Hubbard

Two key themes came to the fore this year: Huawei and 5G. Huawei’s growth was halted by the US-China trade war and the removal of Google Mobile Services from new device launches, thereby depriving Europe of the Mate 30 Pro. Other brands capitalised on this, most notably Samsung with its excellent A series.

The hype around the launch of 5G was predictable and eerily similar to the launch of 4G. The reality has failed to deliver against the hype so far, with 5G reserved for the most expensive flagship handsets and those customers luckily enough to live where there is coverage.

Apple’s decision to not include 5G in its new handset range looked like a mis-step, but ultimately didn’t affect its sales.

Lease Telecom director Simon Fabb 

2019 saw some interesting attempts to demonstrate innovation, with the likes of Samsung and Huawei putting a case forward for folding screens. Personally, I’m not convinced at all by this form factor or the retail price.

On the flipside, challenger brands such as Xiaomi looked within to offer an alternative message aimed at frustrated consumers who want high-performance tech without the profiteering.

Apple, meanwhile, returned with a play for the ‘prosumer’. For many, the new line-up came with a warm welcome – not least from the enterprise sector, which overnight gained access to last year’s line-up without the 2018 price tag. The deprecation of iTunes signalled another strong year for additional services, as Apple TV and Music look to become serious contenders for household streaming budgets.

Handset prices proved consistent, while market disruption continued throughout 2019 with unlimited data tariffs acting as a test bed for 5G. Expensive handsets and unlimited SIM- only tariffs further provided customers with great choice.

The year 2020 looks to be a year of service as we transition towards a marketplace in which consumers expect a pyramid of uncapped usage, the lowest prices and the fewest pains.

Iris IoT Solutions managing director Stephen Westley  

Wearing my two hats as a director of both an IoT solutions business and a mobile services and rugged hardware company, 2019 has been widely contrasting.

In the world of IoT, the furore and mystery around Huawei has alerted everyone to the fundamentals of security, particularly where data is the main rather than just secondary product. A focus on the integrity of the supply chain is good for home-based manufacturers and suppliers, and has also reinforced the fidelity of the supplier-customer relationship. Out of chaos comes a little sanity.

The year 2019 has also been a year in which those two great myths from both sides of the mobile fence – 5G and NB-IoT – have become more of a reality, courtesy of Vodafone.

While not yet perfected, both will have a major impact in enabling our world among consumers and the mobile industry alike, and Vodafone should be applauded for its efforts and leadership.

In the handset arena, it has been heartening to see the small shoots of re-emergence of those once great titans Nokia, with its rugged phone the 800 Tough, and Motorola with the Razr – even if in name only. This has tipped

at the great tide of Asian OEMs flooding our markets, where even tier-2 manufacturers (can they really be classified as such?) are producing some startling products.

On rugged turf, it’s exciting to see what was always regarded as a niche market launching handsets that compete favourably with the ‘latest and greatest’ consumer offerings. You have the Cat S61, Ulefone Armor 7 and the Defender 3 with barcode scanner and the like – giving the user not only outstanding performance, but also reliability and the useful life expectancy and value-for-money they deserve, as well as opening new mobile markets.

As more and more users have changed to SIM-only, we expect growth in the rugged segment to continue as end users look at the true RoI in hardware.

Pier Insurance managing director Toby Stubbington

The handset market has remained subdued, with little impact from foldable or 5G technology yet. The consumer is mindful of the ‘pound in their pocket’, and therefore products such as SIM-only, refurbished mobiles and the development of a variety of finance options have become attractive to a large segment of the population.

In terms of mobile networks, Vodafone is certainly showing renewed promise with recent net additions and the Virgin Media deal. A dynamic competitive environment is important, with government support and regulation where the market falls short in areas such as coverage or, potentially, innovation. The digital debate over the course of the election is welcomed, assuming it leads to action.

Mobile software developments, with a focus on AI and machine learning, are exciting. Mobile devices, alongside home smart speakers and IoT, offer a rich environment for further customer value, and devices will continue to become more intertwined and important.

Samsung’s newly launched Galaxy S10 range is certainly a vast technical improvement on predecessor the S9. Yet analysts suspect that even a strong commercial performance will not be enough to halt the rise of Huawei to global number-one spot for market share.

The S9 has not performed as Samsung expected throughout the year since its launch in 2018. It had a troubled unveiling, with many of its features leaked before it was shown at last year’s Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona.

On top of that, some observers considered these features to be disappointingly incremental compared with the previous year’s S8. The most notable changes – a more user-friendly fingerprint sensor and enhanced rear dual-aperture lens – were not, for example, seen as particularly tangible upgrades for consumers.

Sales
These feelings were reflected on the sales front: according to Canalys, 13.1 million S9 and S9+ devices were shipped in 2018, lower than the 16.6 million figure for the S8 and S8+ the previous year.

It’s early to speculate on future sales for the S10 and its variants, but it’s safe to say that the device has benefited from a groundswell of excitement since its unveiling. Instead of leaving this until MWC, Samsung stole a march by announcing the device to the world at its own Galaxy Unpacked event on February 20 – a move that most analysts agree was a smart one.

“It was shrewd by Samsung to make a move before MWC,” says Canalys senior analyst Ben Stanton. “It was able to take two or three days of solid headlines in all the big tech publications and then roll that into MWC and have all the new phones available in the booth for journalists to play with. Assuming next year’s products are available in the same kind of time frame, I’d be surprised if they didn’t repeat that.”

Galaxy Unpacked was lent added excitement by Samsung’s announcement of the Galaxy Fold, its foray into the foldable phone sector. This similarly came out ahead of a flurry of foldable announcements by a surprisingly large range of manufacturers at MWC.

Samsung’s move was an effective way of circumventing the struggle to stand out amid the noise of MWC, points out uSwitch head of commercial for broadband and mobiles Ernest Doku. “The unveiling was a strategy to avoid the scrum that is MWC. There’s a raft of manufacturers that were going to be talking about their flexible devices, their 5G-enabled devices and their plans for the future, so for Samsung to not only steal a march but impress a lot of early viewers with the range of devices they had on offer was entirely sensible – and it’s an approach that is highly likely to continue.”

IDC associate vice president for EMEA Francisco Jeronimo agrees: “MWC drives a lot of attention for everyone and no one pays attention to every single device until after the event, so it’s hard to digest and write the proper stories and reports about devices. What Samsung did allowed us to have time to test and try the device, and play with it a few days before MWC, so they definitely got more traction than if they had made the announcement at MWC.”

Birthday special
Befitting of a flagship 10th-anniversary product, it helped Samsung that the S10 looked the part. Even the S10e, the supposed ‘lite’ variant of the range, is a big improvement on the S9 in terms of battery, storage, processor, display and RAM. There’s not much that innovates above and beyond the offerings of competitors, but it at least appears a substantial leap to consumers.

“Getting hands-on with the devices, you can’t help but feel this is range that would have been great to see last year,” says GfK technology director Imran Choudhary. “The new Infinity O-display really is edge-to-edge, with no home button or notch and a tiny pinhole for the camera visible in the top right corner. The fingerprint scanner now sits directly in the front screen. All of these features and the associated price points could help Samsung in the coming months as consumers come face to face with the devices.”

Choudhary adds: “The S10e is a welcome addition to the new range. Given its dimensions, specs, colours and price point, it now gives Samsung that cover at the entry level of the premium end of the market, with an RRP of £669.”

On the pricing front, analysts generally agree that as a premium device, the S10 range isn’t going to attract much outcry – especially given that Apple has already flirted with a £1,000 cost for the iPhone XS. It’s now accepted that high-end phones are expensive, and the only way to curb device retention and persuade consumers to make a new purchase is to offer a truly visible change in new devices.

This is even more the case when set against the rise of the refurbished market – which, as one of the mobile industry’s fastest-growing sectors, posted seven per cent growth worldwide in 2018, according to Counterpoint Research.

“Consumers are so used to [high] price points that it’s not a major concern anymore,” says Jeronimo. “It’s not the biggest challenge for Samsung. The S10 is expensive, definitely, but it’s within the range for that kind of device from direct competitors and it is not a brand that is trying to make cheaper devices with premium features.”

Doku asserts that Samsung is doubling down on the premium aspect: “Samsung is not just [working] in reaction to the slightly behind-the-curve performance of the S9, but the incredibly strong competition from both the usual players and the swathe of Chinese manufacturers new to the UK market. In particular, those vendors have already shown a lot of success in a more price-sensitive European market, and that has really forced Samsung to double down and deliver devices that are incredibly compelling.”

For all these reasons, sales expectations for the S10 are bullish, despite global smartphone shipments seeing a fifth consecutive quarterly decline, according to IDC. Although it’s early to make concrete assertions, Jeronimo says sellers have told IDC that S10 pre-orders have been much better than for the S9. Doku adds that initial interest for the S10 and S10+ has been “very strong” at uSwitch.

Stanton says early indications suggest that the S10 is doing much better than its predecessor, driven by the new iteration being “tangibly different”. The average consumer, he says, “can see or feel how it’s different, whereas previously that was much more challenging.”

Device trends
There is disagreement on how the S10 will affect sales of the S9 and S8. Whereas a new device often signifies reductions in the prices of its predecessors, Stanton believes this is less likely with the S10 because of its strong promise.

He says: “What we see in the last few years with Samsung, especially with the S9, is that it discounted heavily towards the back end of 2018. I suspect that if the S10 is selling very well, there may be less of an incentive to bring the price of that device down – especially as Samsung wants to extract as much margin from that device as possible.”

Doku, however, has seen strong deals for earlier S-series models and believes these are important for Samsung to counter the rise of mid-range smartphones from the likes of Xiaomi, Oppo and, of course, Huawei, especially in the UK.

What sales seem unlikely to do is halt therise of Huawei in the smartphone global rankings by market share. According to Statista, the Chinese manufacturer’s share rose from 10.7 per cent in Q4 2017 to 16.1 per cent in Q4 2018, whereas Samsung’s fell slightly from 18.9 to 18.7 per cent over the same period. And Jeronimo anticipates that Huawei will overtake Samsung in the next 12 to 18 months.

Stanton asserts, meanwhile, that the S10 won’t be a determining factor in deciding who’s on top this time next year.

“The battle will be won by devices priced between £100 and £400 around the world, and it will really come down to what Samsung does to the A series and its low-end lines.”

Samsung’s precipitous drop in market share in China – from 20 per cent in 2013 to less than one per cent today, according to Strategy Anaytics – is somewhat counterbalanced by Huawei’s lack of presence in the US, but the imminent worldwide arrival of the Huawei P30 series may help decisively tip the balance.

Feedback on board
While Samsung’s number-one position in the smartphone market may be challenged, the vendor has shown with the S10 that it is recognising the weaknesses of the S series and accommodating customer feedback. Arguably chief among these is the S series’ virtual assistant, Bixby. This has never quite caught the public’s imagination in the same way as Apple’s Siri or Amazon’s Alexa, and was not at the front and centre of marketing for the device. The challenge has remained in making Bixby stand out, but having been quite late to the virtual-assistant table after launching two years ago, Samsung appears to be recognising that Bixby isn’t going to be a chief sales driver.

The manufacturer has instead made the more recognisable Google Assistant easier to access, with Doku saying this amounts to a realisation by Samsung that “consumer choice is paramount”.

“Enabling the Bixby button to access other functionality on the phone is a realisation in part that consumers are, from a smartphone perspective, far more familiar with the applications of Google Assistant and that enabling customers to have that choice is still key,” he says.

Stanton believes that, going forward, Bixby may have some Samsung smart home uses in the future, but won’t impact S10 sales – and, indeed, that it may actually take more of a back seat in future devices: “I wouldn’t be surprised to see [Bixby] slowly start to be de-emphasised, simply because they were very late to the voice assistant market and functionality of that product is increasingly falling behind cross-platform competitors that have more investment, a bigger base of developers and a bigger base of people that use them on a daily basis. I don’t expect a key piece of smartphone marketing to revolve around Bixby again.”

What next?
Even with a reduced focus on virtual assistance, the S10 is a major entry in the S series canon as a 10th-anniversary device – and it invites curiosity as to what Samsung will do next.

Industry developments have pointed towards what might be on the cards for next year. What looks like the current ceiling in terms of price and performance is set to be pushed upwards with the advent of 5G and foldable devices.

The S10 5G, set for launch in the second half of 2019, will be Samsung’s first new device to support 5G – and it won’t just do that, but will also have a larger battery and display.

Stanton, who styles the device an “S10++”, reckons a second-half release is unlikely in the UK, though. “I suspect the allocation for that kind of product will be skewed heavily towards Korea and the US,” he says. “It doesn’t make sense for Samsung to put a lot of European skews into production.”

It seems that device innovationis low on the list of priorities for next year, says Jeronimo: “[Refreshing design every year] doesn’t make much sense when people are holding their devices for three years. If you start refreshing every year, it will upset customers.”

5G is exciting for those within the industry, but visible innovations are more likely to gain a reaction among consumers themselves, says Choudhary, who thinks we should look to the foldable sector for future developments likely to turn their heads.

“Next year, it is fair to expect another iteration of the Galaxy Fold, along with a Galaxy S range update,” he says. “Given that folding phones are new in the market for all the manufacturers, there is no tried and tested approach on how to make a folding device, and each brand is bringing their take to the market.”

Ultimately, says Choudhary, it will come down to consumers to decide which types of folding devices become the blueprint for years to come – and manufacturers still have plenty of wiggle room to turn their heads

“There is plenty of room for development, and someone is yet to launch a foldable device that is the size of current smartphones when open but much smaller when folded to fit better in your pocket,” he says.

Nearly three years since the UK voted narrowly in favour of leaving the European Union, that exit is – supposedly, at least – nearly here.

In the referendum vote in June 2016, the ‘Leave’ campaign narrowly edged out ‘Remain’ by 51.9 to 48.1 per cent, with over 17.4 million people voting for the UK to leave the EU.

Since the results were confirmed, British politics has been dominated by the so- called Brexit, with debate after debate in the House of Commons over how to secure the best outcome for the country.

Prime Minister Theresa May has already seen two proposed Brexit deals rejected by fellow MPs, with the process proving anything but straightforward and causing uncertainty for UK businesses.

There have been debates over a hard or soft Brexit, as well as several calls for either a second referendum or a “people’s vote”, with MPs voting in March to seek a three-month delay to Brexit until June 30.

With so much uncertainty, what does this mean for UK telecoms and its consumer and business-to-business markets?

TRADE AND SUPPLY

Trade between the UK and member states is expected to become disrupted as Britain exits the EU – which has effectively become a single market in which goods and people can move around as if within a country.

With the UK set to leave, many also expect the value of the pound to suffer against the euro – at least in the short term.

This is a “real concern”, says Nigel Prince, managing director at distributor New Way International. “There’s a big worry about how the currency will become affected as result of Brexit. It’s a real concern how strong the pound will be against the euro and US dollar.”

There may also be supply chain issues, says Imran Choudhary, director for technology at research company GfK.

“Aside from the currency, other negative impacts are likely to include disrupted supply chains and logistics, and higher admin costs,” he says. “For the B2B industry it will have an impact on what it will be able to export.”

In addition, concerns have been raised over a potential return of roaming charges for using data when abroad in the EU.

However, Three (for one) has announced that it will not add any additional roaming costs, regardless of the final Brexit outcome.

Three CEO Dave Dyson said “We’re committed to eradicating excessive roaming charges and will retain this customer benefit regardless of Brexit negotiations, allowing our customers to continue using their usual allowances when they travel within the EU.”

Following Three’s announcement, CCS Insight senior analyst Kester Mann believes it will be difficult for any of the other operators to apply additional costs for roaming.

“I don’t think operators will revert to this, as the UK is such a competitive market – plus these operators already offer roaming outside the EU as a differentiator.”

“In theory the operators could introduce this but if the operators backtrack on this because it could be risky for them.”

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

There are also questions over consumer confidence during the period of uncertainty caused by Brexit.

This comes on top of several factors that have already contributed to a decline in the UK smartphone market in recent years, as it has matured.

Increased product lifecycles, better hardware and higher prices have led to consumers holding onto their phones for longer – and Mann believes that although these struggles would continue even in the absence of Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU will not help the market.

“The downward trend will continue with or without Brexit, despite the innovation we saw at the Mobile World Congress,” he says. “However, with Brexit we might see that consumer confidence won’t be as strong, as people will be more nervous about making big investments.”

Choudhary, meanwhile, says that British consumers have been “stoic” in the face of the unknown, but does foresee a downturn in SIM-free handset sales.

“These sales will come under increasing pressure,” he says. “They are currently on a growth trajectory, but this could be dampened by Brexit. Consumers may be less likely to spend money on brand new phones.”

PLANNING AHEAD

With Brexit looming, many businesses will have planned for the future with this in mind – something that has been the case for New Way.

The distributor, which has a business in Germany, opened a further centre in the Dutch city of Rotterdam in September.

In the event of Brexit, this international presence also offers backup for the business, including staff, logistics functions and a warehouse.

Despite not being too concerned about the UK’s departure harming how New Way operates, Prince says that having a plan to cater for it is essential.

“We’re one of the more fortunate UK businesses, as we already have an established business out in Germany,” he says. “With this, we have staff, logistics and a warehouse, and this offers us a backup plan.”

Prince adds: “We’re ready to do what we need to do, whether that is moving stock around or selling stock in Europe directly.”

Meanwhile, vendor Alcatel has said it has been planning ahead for the worst-case scenario in the event of Brexit, inlcuding for the possibility of a no-deal outcome.

At the Mobile World Congress, Alcatel’s UK and Ireland country director William Paterson told Mobile News that the firm has planned for the worst when it comes to potential stock issues.

“We planned and reorganised the supply chain to bring in products in a sufficient manner,” he said. “We will be bringing products directly from China to the UK and avoiding customs in Paris.”

5G QUESTION

There is also a question surrounding whether Brexit will affect the launch of 5G in the UK, given the investment required at a time of uncertainty.

Operators EE and Vodafone plan to debut the technology this year, with EE launching in 16 cities and Vodafone in 19 this year.

Mann doesn’t believe, however, that 5G rollout will be affected, as the infrastructure is already in place.

“I don’t expect 5G to be impacted by Brexit,” he says. “EE in particular is determined to be at the forefront of this and Vodafone isn’t far behind.

“It seems to be full steam ahead for 5G, and the operators seem to be pushing on with plans rather than reining them in. It appears that Brexit isn’t influencing this, which is quite encouraging.”

Choudhary agrees, adding that he doesn’t think the UK will fall behind with 5G because the investment has already been put in place. 

“5G is critical to the development of the mobile industry,” he says. “The capital expenditure required for 5G has already been thought of and all the mobile operators are working towards this.” 

Choudhary does, however, believe that the Brexit situation could affect SMEs and larger businesses.

“Brexit might have a broader impact on the SME and corporate landscape in the UK, as a lot of these businesses might be planning investment in IT and telecoms infrastructure,” he says. “The uncertainty around Brexit might put them off investing in 5G hardware.”

BRIGHT SIDE?

While Brexit is anticipated to be a challenge for the UK’s telecoms industry, will there be any positive outcomes for the telecoms industry?

Some think so – or, at least, that the impact will be relatively neutral. Edward Elliot-Square, sales director at phone trader IPT.cc, says, for instance that the uncertainty doesn’t phase him.

“I’m not worried at all,” he says. “I think it is going to be positive for the industry if anything, in particular for the mobile industry.”

Elliot-Square believes the UK will be able to control its own laws and regulations, and could even become a focal point for trade.

“There will be new rules to adhere to, but this might even see the UK become a trading hub, the likes of which we see in Switzerland and Dubai,” he says. Under this scenario, he explains, other countries could “trade with confidence” with the UK because they would be dealing only with that country.

Elliot-Square also believes that from a mobile manufacturer perspective, little will alter.

“Most, if not all, of the mobile manufacturers are outside the EU, so nothing is going to change. There’s no duty on the movement of mobile phones across Europe, so I don’t see how there can be an issue with Brexit,” he says.

Eurostar Global Electronics MD Peter Carnall, meanwhile, says it will be “business as usual” once the UK leaves the EU.

Carnall shot down fears that Brexit will slow down goods entering the UK and revealed that the distributor has explored contingency options over the past two years.

“There’s not going to be a delay on products entering the UK; if we leave the EU, the goods will still come to us at the same speed they do now,” he says.

“There’s a fallacy that the doors are going to come down and goods will take forever to be shipped. I don’t think the UK government will allow that to happen.”

WAITING GAME

Although it is difficult to forecast the UK’s future with Brexit on the horizon, the shared feeling among those in the mobile industry is therefore that the impact won’t be too detrimental.

But Choudhary thinks it is a case of playing the waiting game before the full implications of Brexit for the mobile industry can be determined.

“Although most businesses will have planned for Brexit, it’s difficult to know exactly what will happen, and the long- term effects won’t be known for years,” he says.

He believes the final impact of the UK leaving the EU will hinge on how much of a hit there will be on consumer and business confidence in spending.

Xiaomi is aiming to ship two million smartphones in the UK to take 10 per cent of the country’s smartphone market over the next 12 months.

An ambition that would probably secure the vendor a comfortable fourth place. Analysts speaking to Mobile News have described the target as a “stretch”, though they do expect the Chinese manufacturer to make a huge dent in the UK mobile phone market and mount a real threat to more established players.

CCS Insight chief of research Ben Wood says: “Hitting 10 per cent of the market is a real stretch given the intensity of the competition and current landscape of the UK market. We have established premium brands such as Samsung, and then you have the increasingly aggressive Huawei on its market share offensive.

“Two million devices is optimistic in the current economic climate. It’s going to need a fair wind behind them to do it.”

Canalys senior analyst Ben Stanton thinks Xiaomi can claim fourth place “quite easily” in 2019, but said that while getting 10 per cent would not be impossible, it would be “incredibly difficult”.

GfK key account director Imran Choudhary said the current state of play in the UK market is another hurdle that could trip Xiaomi up in meeting its goal: “The UK market has been stagnating, so it is making the goal more difficult. It feels a bit of an ambitious target.”

At the same time, analysts agree that the Beijing-based firm has the size, scale and ability to heavily penetrate the UK market. The company took £5.7 billion in revenues in Q3, a year-on-year surge of 49.1 per cent. Gross profit stood at £741 million, up by 24.6 per cent.

Unsurprisingly, the bulk of revenue came from smartphone sales, at £3.9 billion. Xiaomi had shipped over 100 million smartphones this year by the end of October, a target it has smashed two months early. In 2017, the company sold over 70 million smartphones in the first 10 months and 92 million across the year.

The shipment milestone places Xiaomi in the top five in 30 global smartphone markets, including first in India and Myanmar, and second in Israel and Ukraine. It debuted in Europe last year, launching in Spain, then Italy and France – where it is third, fourth and fifth, respectively. Xiaomi first expanded its footprint to India in 2014 from its initial market of China, with international expansion pushed by former Google executive and then global vice-president Hugo Barra and founder Lei Jun.

It is evident that wherever Xiaomi has gone in Europe, it has been a successful debutant. However, as analysts say, the UK market is competitive, unpredictable and stagnating. Given Xiaomi’s prepaid focus, another factor to consider is that the country’s subscribers are more hooked on contracts than the more prepaid-skewed European markets cited above.

Figures from Canalys for the past five years show how UK smartphone shipments have been gradually shrinking (see chart, page 28). The market has plateaued, following the wild days of 50 per cent annual growth between 2009 and 2013.

This has happened for a variety of reasons, including ever-increasing smartphone prices and less motivation for subscribers to upgrade because of only incremental changes to smartphone technology.

Profit Margin

On stage at its London launch in the Barbican Centre on November 8, Xiaomi president of global business and SVP Wang Xiang reiterated the firm’s commitment to a five per cent profit margin on all products. This is aimed at helping it “give back to the customer” – in other words, sell its products at rock-bottom prices.

The value proposition is one that gives the manufacturer traction to gain market share. Wood said a gasp went up in the Barbican Centre when the flagship Mi 8 Pro was announced for retail at £499, a price that Stanton called a “sweet spot” in the UK market.

The smartphone has the processing speed of a premium flagship device and a camera ranked second on industry benchmarking website DxOMark.

“The value proposition is a hand grenade into the consumer electronics market”, said Wood. “Xiaomi is a very big threat, especially in wearables and electric scooters. For mobile phones, Xiaomi is unlike other new entrants we’ve seen and is definitely one to watch, with a huge ecosystem of products brought over as well as the attractively priced smartphones.

“Looking at its success in Italy and Spain, those markets are used to buying prepaid, which is why Xiaomi grew quick. Historically, the UK has been hooked on contracts, and Xiaomi has come in to change that game.”

However, he said, the focus of operators on contracts also means that “there’s not a great incentive for big operators to get behind them. The bigger operators don’t want retail stores to become a showroom for Xiaomi, where people would have a look and then buy online.”

Stanton labelled Xiaomi “the masters of supply and logistics”, capable of sourcing parts for devices at good prices and cleverly streamlining its product line by not releasing several different products for different markets. This is part of the reason prices are so attractive for customers.

“Attractive pricing is Xiaomi’s thing and it’s the best way to build excitement,” said Stanton. “Xiaomi is very much a global company with a unified global strategy, meaning the strategy is to have one product and sell it everywhere. That’s part of the reason why Xiaomi can be aggressive with margin structure.

“It doesn’t have different-coloured phones for specific markets. Some brands and legacy brands in Europe might have a single-SIM version and a dual-SIM one, which complicates stock issues and leads to more production. Samsung is a practitioner of this. That’s not Xiaomi’s strategy at all.”

He pointed out that apart from Chinese-specific products, the company has single global versions. “Its strategy in the UK will not differ from the one enacted in Spain, France, Italy or Greece,” he said. “It will be aggressive pricing without sacrificing quality.”

He added that the Mi 8 Pro has the potential to do well in the UK: “If the Mi 8 Pro came in at £600, I would have been sceptical about Xiaomi’s chances in the UK. But the price has come in under the OnePlus 6T and Huawei P20 Pro. It ticks all the right boxes: value, fashion and performance.”

Choudhary said further: “Time will tell if its approach is successful or not, but it’s certainly something that gives them the best chance to do well. If you look at how Xiaomi entered other markets in Europe, they’ve seen their performance pick up pretty rapidly, and I think what they done is taken a quite wise and shrewd approach in the UK given how saturated and competitive this market is.”

Big Challenge

The current landscape in the UK market is indeed tough. Not only are consumers holding onto their smartphones for longer and thus bringing overall shipments down, but there is a plethora of players in the handset arena. But legacy manufacturers such as Sony and Alcatel are “ready to be dislodged”, said Stanton.

“Sony could be pushed out more: it now holds only two per cent share in the UK (see chart, page 26) and Alcatel can see that threat too,” said Stanton. “If you look at the products, it’ll be an even product battle, but its about who can win the brand battle. If Xiaomi can do that, I think it’s going to be very difficult to compete against for legacy brands.

“Xiaomi should be comparing itself to OnePlus and Honor: both have devices at aggressive points for specs too.”

Choudhary says a drastic change is needed from manufacturers with an established brand in the UK. “Traditional brands that have dominated the landscape really have to look to readdress their strategy and handsets. I don’t think it’s just the case of running above-the-line marketing. Consumers are now becoming more savvy and holding onto their smartphones a lot longer.

Wood says earlier efforts from Chinese vendors that have entered the UK market could pave the way for Xiaomi to have an easier time converting the “ever brand-centric UK” with its disruptive business model.

“The consumer view is changing,” says Wood. “That’s thanks to Huawei, which did OnePlus and Xiaomi a huge favour by educating the UK market that there are products from brands you won’t immediately recognise that are actually pretty good.

“It means that attention for less well-known brands has increased in the UK market. People who would initially have bought a Huawei phone with some trepidation have then found out it massively exceeds their expectations.”

Analysts have collectively agreed that Xiaomi’s aim to take a 10 per cent market share in the UK in 12 months is a “stretch”, but are confident the manufacturer will provide heavy competition for incumbent rivals.

The aim was revealed by Xiaomi sales and marketing director Wilkin Lee in an exclusive interview with Mobile News last month. The company aims to ship two million devices to achieve its ambitious target.

On November 8, Xiaomi unveiled the Redmi 6A, Mi 8 and Mi Pro smartphones, and showcased technology gadgets including a £399 electric scooter.

CCS Insight chief of research Ben Wood said: “Hitting 10 per cent of the market is a real stretch given the intensity of the competition and current landscape of the UK market. We have established premium brands such as Samsung and then you have the increasingly aggressive Huawei on its market share offensive.

“Two million devices is optimistic in the current economic climate. I don’t think its a slam dunk for Xiaomi to get a 10 per cent share. Its going to need a fair wind behind them to do it.”

Canalys senior analyst Ben Stanton agreed: “Xiaomi can be number four quite easily in 2019. Getting 10 per cent is not impossible, but incredibly difficult and overambitious. It needs to push more models in the market to really do that.”

GfK key account director Imran Choudhary said that the current situation in the UK market is another hurdle that could potentially trip Xiaomi up in meeting its target: “The UK market has been stagnating, so it is making the goal more difficult. It feels a bit of an ambitious target.

Q3 figures for the UK from Canalys place Apple first (47pc) with shipments of 2.7 million, Samsung second (27pc) with 1.5 million and Huawei in third (14pc) with 785,000 for the quarter. Nokia and Sony sit fourth (3pc) and fifth (2pc), pushing out 171,000 and 120,000 devices.

Anticipation and expectancy is in the air as Apple nears the launch of its next batch of smartphones.

As we head into ‘Apple season’ – when the California-based giant traditionally launches its flagship devices – all eyes will be on Apple as it responds to Samsung and Huawei’s 2018 launches. Samsung has given us the Galaxy S9 and more recently the Note 9, while Huawei has had amazing success with the P20 and P20 Pro devices.

Last year Apple got the world talking when it unveiled the iPhone X, which divided opinion as it was announced it would cost an at-the-time unthinkable £1,000.

The X also introduced the “notch” and took Apple and seemingly the smartphone market into a different direction in terms of design.

While Apple hasn’t yet confirmed any of the features of its latest flagship smartphones or how many it will introduce. It is expected there will be three phones released – with an iPhone 9, iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Plus rumoured.

The iPhone 9 is expected to be the more entry level model of the three and expected to feature an LCD screen whereas the iPhone 11 and 11 Plus continuing on from where the iPhone X left off.

So what do the analysts and those in the industry expect from the launch?

What do you expect from Apple ahead of the upcoming launch?

GfK director technology Imran Choudhary: Our research indicates that consumers are continuing to hang on to their devices for longer and often moving closer to the 30-month mark in many cases. This, along with tough market conditions, mean Apple’s new iPhone will continue to focus on driving margin at a very high price point.

I expect three new devices – one to replace the iPhone X, a larger Plus variant and a more affordable device that may come in more colours, aiming to fulfil the role the iPhone 5C did several years ago. Because of this, it is fair to say we can expect more focus in the super premium end of the market from Apple.

In addition, there’s also a strong chance a slightly less premium device will get released alongside two super premium variants. This more affordable device will be aimed at those who aren’t quite ready to pay the very highest price points, but could be tempted by something more in line with Apple’s historic pricing range.

IDC senior research director Francisco Jeronimo: The question is whether it makes sense for Apple to release three devices. One device I’m not expecting to see a remake of is the iPhone SE. It also makes sense for Apple to keep improving especially around the cheaper versions of the iPhones that will be launched. There is a big question around Apple keeping a similar design to the iPhone X.

EcoRenew Group CEO Marc Chambers: In true Apple fashion it will keep its cards close to its chest until the announcement. However, we’re expecting a similar mix of products to last year with two higher end models, including the iPhone Plus range, and another lower
end model targeting consumers with a smaller budget.

PMGC marketing manager Alan Man: I expect the new range to be similar to the current range as the iPhone X design is still a fairly new design. I can’t imagine Apple will change anything too drastically. Overall, design-wise I expect it will remain the same.

What can we expect in terms of innovation from Apple?

Choudhary: In terms of what the new device could bring – consumers have been telling us repeatedly that battery life and the camera are key drivers to purchase. Given this, Apple would be wise to bring improvements in these key areas. To tackle the battery life we can expect greater chip efficiency and faster wireless charging. While there may be no radical overhaul to the design, there’s likely to be improved camera features with a greater emphasis on how clever AI software interacts with the camera to create more sophisticated photo and imaging functionality, taking AR and gaming into account.”

Jeronimo: I am anticipating Apple to introduce a device that has dual-SIM functionality. Dual SIM is very important to many regions around the world and it is a strong feature that Huawei and Samsung has a strong market share of, and is something that Apple will need to consider in the next launch. I’m also expecting the flagship to have triple cameras and greater capabilities as well as face ID across the range to the lower options.

Chambers: I am not expecting a huge number of technological advances from the forthcoming release apart from dual SIM capability and enhanced OLED screens.

The One Point managing director Martin Lauer: I’m hopeful about the rumours regarding the battery being better and more durable. This is one of the biggest frustrations for current iPhone users as it doesn’t hold out as long as most would like it to.

With Huawei having a strong second quarter, what sort of response can we expect for Apple?

Choudhary: Apple’s launch cycles and development plans are unlikely to be affected or impacted by the performance of others unless someone brought a game-changing element to the industry – and historically that’s always been Apple. Competitors and challengers have their own peaks and troughs but this will have had limited impact on Apple’s plans, in all likelihood.

Jeronimo: It’s unquestionable whether Apple will become number one again with the new devices it will launch, especially if it attracts the mid-range price points. If Apple manages to bring the same design to a lower price point like £600-£800 price range then I believe Apple will have a massive quarter as this is the space Huawei has been taking over in the last year.

Clearly, Apple will regain market share in this space. It is much stronger for Apple if it can regain this share with a new device. It can gain users from Android around that price point. If Apple brings the high end features to a slightly lower price point then they will be of interest to those who are keen to buy the latest phone that isn’t more than £1,000.

What can we expect from Apple in terms of pricing?

Choudhary: In terms of price point, there is little doubt the update to the iPhone X will cost a similar amount with the Plus variant carrying an even higher price point. The more affordable device that might be seen as the iPhone 9, closer to the £700 mark, in line with where we saw the launch of the iPhone 8 last year.

Jeronimo: I’m expecting the devices to be cheaper, although the one device that is similar to the iPhone X I think will push £1,000 again. It depends on the design and whether Apple continues to focus on the iPhone 8 design or if it will move to push the high-end iPhone X design on the cheaper models.

Chambers: Trends over the past two years have shown an increase in handset values, so we expect to see the same again this year. However, with the introduction of a lower budget iPhone handset for this year’s launch, we could see the overall value of devices sold being lower than last year.

Lauer: I would expect the X Plus to be around £1,200 but I’m hopeful there is a mid-range coming at a good price point to drive more volume. I think the Huawei P20 Pro is a game changer at the price point it came at despite being a high-end smartphone. As a result of this I’m hopeful Apple will do something mid-market such as it did with the SE.

Bastion Insurance director of sales John Fannon: Price is a massive reason for consideration from users but I would expect Apple to again be hitting the £1,000 mark with the flagship it is releasing.

What opportunities does iPhone present for your business?

Chambers: The iPhone launch is a huge event across our business for both our consumer-facing brands, Mazuma and iMend. For Mazuma, we regularly see volume of orders spike by 30 to 40 per cent more than normal, through mazumamobile.com, following the initial iPhone announcement. This is largely down to consumers trading in an old device and upgrading to the latest model. It’s a similar picture for our iMend mobile phone repair business as we see spikes in the volumes of orders. Consumers look to repair their devices as they’ve decided to hold on to them for longer after not being impressed by the new model. Alternatively, they look to repair their device in order to get more value before upgrading to a new one.

Lauer: The new iPhone launch is always important to our business. We have a large number of high-end customers who always need to have the latest iPhone. It always turns into a good earner for us. We have customers that are waiting for this iPhone launch. It creates a pause in the market in the months ahead where customers are saying “I’ll just wait”. It always provides good opportunities for us.

Man: Typically with Apple launches there isn’t a massive need for us to market ourselves as there is always a demand for iPhones – the brand sells itself and the customers will support it. There was huge uptake with the iPhone X despite the high price. We sold a significant number of the devices.

Fannon: There is always a lot of excitement and anticipation before an iPhone launch and there is always a big uptake in insurance plans when Apple releases new smartphones. With Apple there is historically always a buzz. We’ve just had our best ever month where a significant part of the uptake that month was due to the Samsung Note 9 that was released earlier in the month. We can get an immediate uplift on that as it is a very expensive and desirable item and we all know the iPhone will be no different, if not better than that, so we are standing by for quite an increase.

It is also a great opportunity for resellers just as much as insurers. The most common form of damage is screen damage and the days of it being a cheap fix are over now as phones are more technologically advanced. For that reason alone it tends to be a far more attractive proposition for consumers now.

Coplus business development manager Bernie Nunn: With the increasing cost of technology this is leading to more customers seeing the benefit of insuring devices, and with the upcoming iPhone’s will be no different. There is a demand for mobile insurance and there has been an uptake in phone and gadget insurance over the last few years as devices have become more expensive. I would hope people see the advantages of insuring their phone as this ultimately benefits them when spending so much money on smartphones.

Would you say the iPhone X which was launched last year was a success?

Choudhary: The iPhone X was a bold step forward allowing Apple to outline its blueprint for the next three to five years. Signalling a move away from a physical home button, the X clearly outlined the base frame on which Apple would inspire future flagships. Given broader market conditions and consumer trends, the X played a pivotal role in allowing Apple to drive its margins in a very tough climate by effectively creating a higher tier within the premium end of the market, which others are trying to imitate.

The new models coming out will no doubt be looking to repeat this success and there are plenty of consumers currently out of contract who could be brought to the buying cycle if they see something they like. With network partners bringing more innovative propositions to the market in a bid to enable customers to make high-end purchases more easily by spreading the costs through leasing and trade-in schemes, there’s every chance these new devices will top last year’s performance.

Jeronimo: It was definitely a successful model and has helped Apple increase its hold on the premium market share. It was one of Apple’s most sold smartphones and if there was ever any concerns when the X was launched they soon evaporated as it experienced strong sales. It’s a good phone and performed well for Apple.

Lauer: The iPhone X was a success and performed well and hopefully has inspired a plus sized version of it for the forthcoming launch. This is something that would be great for many people including myself and would potentially offer a better battery life. Often we found there was a lot of interest in the X but people wanted it to be bigger.

What challenges can Apple expect to have in advance of the launch?

Jeronimo: A challenge for Apple could be that more people are holding onto their phones longer if they’re spending more on those devices in the first place. In particular I expect this to be a challenge that Apple will experience in the high-end sector of the market over the next few years.

In the past people would hold on to phones for a couple of years and upgrade but now it is more likely to be three years or longer as a result of the higher prices that they’re paying. I think Apple needs to incentivise users to upgrade and it can do this when people trade their old devices in. With the trade-ins it is an interesting business for Apple as it can resell these as refurbished smartphones again at a slightly lower price.

Lauer: We have a number of customers that prefer Apple smartphones but are pushed to go for older versions such as the iPhone 6 and SE as they can’t afford the latest models. The pricing could ultimately be a challenge for Apple. Also, I think consumers are becoming less “wowed” by iPhone launches and devices, despite the consistent anticipation each year.

Nunn: I would like to see if Apple can improve on the ruggedness of the new range. One of the leading brands needs to set the trend and if Apple were to do so, others may follow this too.

The device insurance market is on fire. Ten years ago, only three per cent of customers had an insurance policy covering their devices.

That figure has soared to 28 per cent and mobile insurance is now expected to be worth a staggering £12.95 billion globally by 2019, according to financial analysts Finaccord.

Vital

As smartphones reach up to £1,000 in value, these costs are only likely to continue rising in the future, strengthening consumers decisions to take out insurance plans, according to insurers.

Statistics gathered by GfK shows that 21 per cent of UK mobile phone users have insurance with their phone, and this number rises to 27 per cent when looking at the 16-24-year-old age group. Bastion Insurance director of sales John Fannon thinks that the rising cost of smartphones has made gadget insurance indispensable.

“The cost of devices has risen considerably. People don’t realise that their device can cost as much as a new MacBook,” Fannon explains. Gustav Holst Stuge agrees.

The CEO of gadget insurance provider InMyBag reinforces the fact that the mobile phone is no longer a cheap device for making the occasional telephone call, but instead now runs our lives and, as such, needs to be insured.

Stuge said: “Our phones have gone from being merely a device that we would make calls on occasionally to the most important thing we have in our pockets. You need insurance to protect it.”

Therefore the upside for the mobile channel is that gadget insurance is no longer a casual afterthought, but an essential part of the sale.

IDC senior researcher Francisco Jeronimo explains: “From the retail perspective, there is huge pressure to sell additional services and insurance, along with other products such as accessories bring very high margins.

Additional services can increase the revenue for phone companies and resellers.” Fannon says: “As an example, most partners can earn 30 per cent (of the premium) and the higher-volume partners tend to earn 40 per cent.”

At insurance distributor Coplus, business development manager Bernie Nunn echoes this view and says: “From a customer’s point of view, insurance is extremely important as well as being an additional revenue stream for a mobile reseller.”

Opportunity 

The mobile insurance industry has a lot to thank Apple for. Had the computer giant not launched the iPhone 10 years ago, the insurance landscape would be a lot different said Fannon, acknowledging the power of the Apple brand.

IDC’s first quarter figures revealed that Apple is currently second with 15.6 per cent of the global smartphone market share.

With such a significant chunk of the market, there is ample opportunity for insurance companies to take advantage of this.

Fannon adds: “Apple and Samsung’s high-end devices have woken people up to the importance of mobile insurance.”

Supercover business development director Michael Brigden throws in another reason for the surge in gadget insurance popularity.

Brigden explains that the relatively low cost of a policy, compared with the cost of replacing the equipment, is substantial.

He said: “The small price that insurance costs in the grand scheme of what they’re paying is a worthwhile investment.”

GfK technology director Imran Choudhary believes networks and retailers are increasing their efforts in selling devices and gadgets at the point of sale.

The fact that phones are lasting longer and are higher quality means consumers are happy to keep them longer with more opportunity for them to suffer loss or damage.

A mixture of factors has helped the performance of insurance due to increasing costs and the length of time people are holding onto their phones.

A lack of innovation in recent years is another reason, according to Choudhary, why consumers are keeping handhelds longer.

“Customers are holding onto their phones longer as the hardware of the latest flagships aren’t significantly better,” he says.

Value 

Fannon says people are finally realising the value of the equipment that has helped the market rise exponentially each year for the past five years.

“Since 2013, there has been a steady rise of the gross written premium revenue of mobile insurance. It has risen tens of millions each year as people are realising the significant replacement value of their phones.”

Brigden agrees and says: “Consumers generally aren’t interested in upgrading unless the latest phones are more technologically advanced.

“People are more careful with their phones. Where previously they would run them into the ground, they are now looking to insure them and keep them for longer.”

Jeronimo has the same thoughts and adds: “The life cycle of a smartphone is longer now as people are spending more and want to see a return on their investments.

There hasn’t been a massive disruption in the hardware to justify people going and buying the latest flagship when it comes out.”

Innovation

Over time, the advancement in technology for both the software and hardware of mobiles has driven innovation and, as a result, it has delivered high end devices for the consumer.

The parts used to manufacture smartphones have improved so the cost has increased. The iPhone X, for example, features a front and back glass screen, which makes the phone more expensive and more prone to damage if dropped.

Discussing the durability of iPhones, Stuge said: “I don’t think Apple is exactly in the business of making the world’s most durable phone.

Technology moves faster than durability, and this could be part of the business plan for them wanting people to own newer phones more regularly.

“With screen sizes getting bigger and made from more premium materials such as glass and metal, they can be more prone to cracking when dropped.

“If you’re paying a high amount for a device, it is only natural that you want it to look good and last as long as possible.  This is where insurance is becoming key to consumers”, explains Choudhary.

Brigden said: “The positives are that the glass and water resistance on phones is getting better. We’re seeing a drop in water claims too. However the cost of the technology to replace and repair the
screens is increasing.

“We’re trying to keep our prices as reasonable as we can but obviously material costs are going up too.” Rising repair costs have also affected how consumers perceive insurance.

“The repair price has been affected as a lot of screens now require a lot of disassembly to replace.

“The cost of the screens, particularly on curved edge phones such as Samsung is considerably
higher and so is the cost of repairing them”, says Fannon.

Millennials 

Some may assume that consumers more likely to require mobile insurance are millennials, who are supposedly more active in their day-to-day life.

“The fact that a higher proportion of 16-24 year olds have phone insurance when compared to other age groups comes as no surprise.

Around 47 per cent of this group have a mobile that is damaged in some way.” Brigden believes that there is still work to be done to make the younger generation see the benefits of insurance.

“The younger demographic are still under the opinion that mobiles are easy to replace and don’t worry too much. The next step is to target this sector and persuade younger people to see the value of insurance.”

Finaccord’s mobile metrics survey for gadget insurance in 2016 show that slightly more woman (51 per cent) than men (49 per cent) take out gadget insurance.

Fannon said: “When you look at that data, it’s quite an even spread amongst male and female. This shows that gadget insurance is vital for everyone. There’s not a particular sector that stands out as more important than another”.

There are other ways to protect a device. Just stick it in a good case. IDC’s mobile device survey in February 2017 discovered that 65 per cent of people quizzed had purchased a phone case.

Commenting on the survey’s findings Jeronimo said: “Most consumers protect their phone by buying a phone case to protect against accidents. The main reason is to protect the handset against any shocks from dropping it.”

Consumer Growth 

Insurers are benefiting from the growth in consumers taking out insurance as the quantity of claims has also risen.

Supercover has averaged over 2,000 claims per month, and Brigden acknowledged this trend, saying: “We’ve seen claims rise.

The job for us as insurers is how we deal with this in the right way. “We’ve outsourced our claims to a specialist, which has made a huge difference to what we do.”

Bastion Insurance has seen a significant rise in the number of claims having processed 350,000 claims in 2017 across all devices.

Fannon said: “The number of claims has gone up as insurance is now seen as a valuable commodity that represents good value for money.”

Gadget insurance firm Insurance2go confirms that claims are on the rise. Insurance2go managing director Duncan Spencer said: “The number of customers we’ve sold policies to has increased and therefore the number of claims has also risen.”

Protect Your Bubble director James Brown didn’t reveal the number of claims that the company dealt with, but confirmed that the increasing importance and reliance on phones has again motivated people to buy insurance.

Brown said: “Over the last few years as people use their devices to run their lives, we have seen an increase in line with expectations. The main patterns we notice every year is that mishaps are more likely to occur in summer when people tend to be out and about more.”

Internet of things 

The growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) over 5G is only expected to make mobiles even more phones more essential.

IDC statistics in 2016 forecast that the global IoT market is expected to grow to £1.3 trillion by the end of the decade, from £525 billion in 2015. “From an insurance perspective, it will carry on its current trajectory. As 5G enters the market there will be a need for everyone to purchase a new device.

This will kick-start some growth and is likely to have a positive effect on the insurance market,” says Choudhary. So how will insurers adapt to IoT?

“It’s about adapting to what we do. Consumers are acquiring devices and looking for more connectivity with them. We have to adapt with the technology that is available”, says Bridgen.

New Dixons Carphone CEO Alex Baldock will need “innovative new propositions” in mobile to make his tenure a success, according to analysts.

The increased popularity in SIM-only and the stagnation in mobile upgrades are two issues that analysts have identified that Dixons Carphone will need to address to grow in the current market, despite promising results over the Christmas period.

CCS Insight senior analyst Kester Mann said that although the latest results announced last week offered “some positives” for Carphone, it is not out of the woods.

He said: “Dixons had challenges last year and they’ll continue to face challenges going forward.

“Obviously the main challenge is that mobile consumers now are not upgrading their handsets as often as they used to, so in terms of new business models that’s an area to focus on.”

GfK director of technology Imran Choudhary agreed, adding that a change to the retail arm of Carphone is needed.

He said: “It’s fair to say if retailers like Carphone want to continue to be a dominant player in the market they have to look at innovative new propositions that make it easier for consumers to purchase the really premium devices that are harder to buy.”

Leverage experience

The appointment of Baldock comes after current CEO Sebastian James announced he is to step down after the financial year ends in April.

James will be joining Walgreens Boots Alliance later this year with Baldock coming in from his role as CEO of Shop Direct after over five years in the role.

Baldock is charged with transforming the Littlewoods high street retailer to Very, the second largest pure-play online retailer in the UK, delivering five years of record financial performance in that time.

Choudhary added that the appointment of Baldock is “telling” as the retailer looks to embrace the changing nature of the mobile industry.

“I think by bringing in [Baldock] they have brought in someone with a good background, who’s been successful recently, is good online and has digital transformation expertise which might be something they are looking to leverage.”

In this weeks show we discussed biometric facial recognition software with GFK Director of Technology Imran Choudhary and Deloitte head of Technology, Media & Telecommunications research Paul Lee.

We also spoke with New Way International Managing Director Nigel Prince about his involvement in the upcoming Mobile News awards this March and of course we had a word with features editor Manny Pham about the new Mobile News magazine issue out this week.