IDC expects the memory shortage to create a difficult trade-off for the wider industry in 2026. Volumes are likely to decline, but average selling prices are forecast to rise as vendors pass on higher component costs and prioritise profitability over scale. IDC’s analysis suggests the memory shortage will slow the market and solidify Apple and Samsing’s dominance even further.

IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker show global smartphone shipments rose 2.3 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2025 to 336.3 million units, taking total shipments for the year to 1.26 billion units, a 1.9 per cent increase.

However, IDC says those figures mask problem s caused by an unprecedented shortage of memory components that emerged late in the year.

IDC warns supply disruption will push the smartphone market into decline in 2026, with the severity and duration of the downturn dependent on how long memory constraints persist.

“This is widely considered an unprecedented supply chain disruption. Larger players will be better able to secure advantageous supply and workable price points.”” said Ryan Reith, group vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC. 

Consolidation

IDC says the memory shortage is already affecting the top of the market.  Apple and Samsung last year expanded their combined global smartphone share to 39 per cent, up from 37 per cent a year earlier, as smaller vendors struggled to absorb cost increases and supply volatility.

Premium demand remained resilient, with consumers pulling forward purchases in anticipation of price rises. This favoured strong brands, deep supplier relationships and pricing power.

Apple and Samsung pull ahead

Apple closed 2025 as the world’s largest smartphone vendor for the third consecutive year. Record shipments and a strong rebound in China were driven by the iPhone 17 series. Apple also delivered its highest-ever revenue in a single quarter in Q4, underlining its ability to push average selling prices higher even as components became harder to secure.

Samsung delivered its strongest fourth-quarter growth since 2013, fueled by demand for its Galaxy Z Fold 7 and momentum in its AI-enabled Galaxy A-Series. IDC notes that Samsung’s breadth across premium and mid-range devices gives it additional flexibility as memory availability tightens.

Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC, said both vendors used Q4 to strengthen their market positions. “Apple and Samsung consolidated their leadership in the smartphone market by driving strong sales in the premium segment and reaching all-time high average selling prices.”

Rising prices, falling volumes

For UK operators, retailers and channel partners, IDC’s warning is clear. As memory constraints squeeze supply and push prices higher, the market is likely to tilt further towards Apple and Samsung, whose scale allows them to secure components first, manage cost inflation and dictate portfolio strategy.

Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC (below), said both vendors used Q4 to strengthen their market positions. “Apple and Samsung consolidated their leadership in the smartphone market by driving strong sales in the premium segment and reaching all-time high average selling prices.”  

Location: Hampstead

1st Place: O2

Product Range: 5   Product Knowledge: 5   Value Knowledge: 5   Questioning Ability: 5

Sales Ability: 5   Shop Appearance: 4   Score: 29

O2 stole the show this edition. The store was busy and every sales assistant was attending to a customer. I had to wait for a good ten minutes, but was approached by a very chirpy and cheerful salesman.

He greeted me and asked me how could he help me and I told him I was looking for a new phone and SIM deal as I just arrived in the UK few months ago and was also looking for making calls to India. He then asked me which phone am I interested in and since the new Google Pixel 7 was out, I thought I’ll inquire about the phone. He instantly told me that it was a brilliant choice as the phone had promotional offers going on.

He went on to give me a little background about the phone like the release date, a few specs and also told me he would pre-order it for me if I was happy with the deal he was offering.

As he was checking for deals on the system he was talking to me about the reviews of the Google Pixel 7 and made small talk to avoid awkward silences. This made the conversation free-flowing and easy.

He then made me select the storage and data and I opted for 128GB storage and 20GB of data. He offered me tariff of 30GB data with unlimited calls and texts for £18.99 and £3 for international calling. However, since the phone was offering promotional offers, I didn’t have to pay that £3. He still warned me that the calling wouldn’t be free but I would be charged a minimum of 4p per minute.

He then filled me in about the insurance options and offered me a three year warranty as part of the promotional tariff. I was also told the phone was interest free and I could switch to a new phone within three months.

After asking me to cap my spending towards the phone, he gave me a breakdown of how much I would be spending for the data package and the device and it amounted to £70 per month. Even though it was on the higher side, it seemed like a fair deal to me because it included a extra perks like cheap international calls, three year warranty and many others

Overall my experience at O2 was a very pleasant one, the sales assistant was knowledgable, informative and had a friendly approach. I felt well-informed about the tariffs offered and even though he asked me if I wanted to go ahead with the pre-order, he wasn’t forceful.

2nd Place: Vodafone

Product Range: 5   Product Knowledge: 4   Value Knowledge: 5   Questioning Ability: 4

Sales Ability: 3   Shop Appearance: 4   Score: 25

Coming in second place is Vodafone. As I entered the store I was instantly greeted by a sales assistant and he asked me what was I looking for.

I told her I wanted to buy a new phone and SIM and I’m looking for affordable deals. He asked me what model I was looking for, how much data per month and if I was a Vodafone user. I told him I was looking to switch from Lyca to O2 and opted for the same Google Pixel 7.

He then went on to his system to search for affordable tariffs, and while he was looking for deals, he suggested I buy the phone directly from Google or any online website like Amazon, and just take a SIM only deal, as I would end up paying more if I chose a device and SIM plan. I liked how transparent he was about this information, and was considerate about my spendings as I told him I was a student.

He then told me that the retail cost of any phone would be split into three to six months at zero per cent interest and over that select an airtime package, which makes the combine deal expensive. He then gave me a breakdown of the tariff which came up to £24 for the device on a two year contract, £23 for 25GB of data bringing my total to £47 per month. Additionally I would have to pay £5 for 100 minutes or £10 for 500 minutes of international calling and an upfront of £30. This tariff was cheaper than O2, but the sales assistant told me if I went for the SIM only deal I would get 60GB of data for £18, which would be so much cheaper. I liked how he made me think economically.

He also mentioned that if I wanted to look for a phone which was as good as the Google Pixel 7, he suggested I go for the Samsung Galaxy S22 as it was on sale on Amazon and I could get the SIM plan from Vodafone.

At Vodafone I felt like all my needs were taken care of. The sales assistant didn’t force me to take deals that would benefit him, but gave me ways to get more benefits for a lesser price.

3rd Place: Three

Product Range: 3   Product Knowledge: 3   Value Knowledge: 2   Questioning Ability: 2

Sales Ability: 2   Shop Appearance: 2   Score: 14

Coming a couple of points behind Vodafone was Three. When I entered the busy store, it took a while before I was approached by the sales manager. He asked me if I needed any help, and I went ahead and told him that I’m looking for a device and SIM plan and as I have just arrived from India, I need international calling as well.

After hearing my request he asked me what phone I was looking for and I told him the new Google Pixel 7. Just like all other providers he too asked me if I had a bank account so that relevant background checks can be done.

He then looked up tariffs without asking me how much data and storage I would need, and just before I could tell him, he came up with a price of £48 per month, not mentioning what would be included in it. I then asked him the cost for international calls and how much of data would I get paying £48, he told me it would be unlimited data and £10 for unlimited international calls.

Though the deal was a good one, he showed no interest in drilling down to the details of the plans. He did not mention how much upfront cost I would have to pay and how much of the money would go towards my device and data plan and the length of the contract.

Our conversation lasted for just four minutes in total. Being a manager he had no intention in making me pursue this deal further and was laid back.

All in all, though I was being offered unlimited data and unlimited international calls for £10, there were so many questions unanswered. There was zero effort from the manager to give me clear information about the tariff he offered.

EE: 4^th place

Product Range: 3   Product Knowledge: 1   Value Knowledge: 2   Questioning Ability: 2

Sales Ability: 1   Shop Appearance: 3   Score: 12

Fourth place this issue belongs to EE. All the stores I visited were busy, but EE was the busiest of them all. I had to wait for almost ten minutes before I was approached. The sales assistant was laid back as well. He asked me what I was looking for and when I told him I was looking to buy the new Google Pixel 7 and a SIM plan with international calling, he straight went on to his system, without asking me how much data and storage I needed.

After sometime, he asked me if I was looking for the Google pixel 6, but I told him it was the Google Pixel 7. He then told me that the 7 pro was the new one and not the 7 and that showed he was not aware about the latest release.

He then showed me his tablet and randomly started reading numbers from it, not explaining what they meant and whether he was showing me costs for the device only or the airtime plan.

I was confused and asked him to tell me how much would I be charged for the phone and SIM together, he again just showed me a couple of numbers on his tab. After asking him again about my monthly spendings towards the phone and SIM, he said it would start from £57 for 10GB data, which was so expensive compared to the other deals.

He did not bother breaking down the costs and explaining the deals well. The store was quite busy with customers lined up waiting to be attended, so I’m not sure if they were willing to give proper time to address people’s queries.

5: EE

When I walked into the EE store I had a feeling it wasn’t going to turn out well. It took a few attempts to try and get served to realise it simply wasn’t going to happen.
The shop itself was laid out very nicely. The obligatory iPhone and Samsung stands were on the right, although the former had no handsets on display, with comfy seating areas all around for talking over any problems or tariff plans.
There was also a small area at the back which presumably acts as a help bar for anyone who needs it. However, it also seemed to double up as a hiding place for staff. I’m not sure if it was the Easter holiday effect but the store was loud, busy and hot yet all the staff seemed to do was stand behind the help bar and either wait to be approached (or hope not to be approached).
On my second visit there were more staff dotted around and talking to customers however the same people that were being seen at the time of my first visit were still at the desks, being attended to half an hour later – and by the look on their faces they were destined to be there a lot longer.
I moved over to the Apple display but found that the only device on show was the iPhone SE and, on second evaluation, found that despite the layout, this shop was looking tired and in need of some tender loving care.
After another 20 minutes my disappointing visit to EE came to an end. I generally find that EE’s service is good but the demand of being the UK’s best network may be a curse when everyone and their dog has an issue.

Product range: 0/5

Product knowledge: 0/5

Value knowledge: 0/5

Questioning ability: 0/5

Sales ability: 0/5

Shop appearance: 4/5
4: Three

The Three shop was laid out in the same fashion to the other Three stores I have visited. Pods rise up from the ground with a range of handsets on them from Huawei, Samsung, Apple, Sony and the rest of the market. On the right there was a help desk to sort out any troubles that consumers are experiencing and towards the back there were seated areas for staff to talk through plans.
The shop itself was quite busy with several people in and around, asking questions and signing up for devices. However, despite this there was a couple of assistants available.
I approached one, said hello and explained that I had recently taken a gamble and bought an Android device after years of allegiance to iPhone. But the transitional process wasn’t working and it was time to go back to what I know and love.
Unfortunately, my nameless assistant told me that the red iPhone is only available online and over the phone and they had none in stock at that location.
I asked her to find out how much I would need to pay and if there was any movement on the price instore but this lady was not for turning and reiterated that the latest iteration of the iPhone was only available online and possibly over the phone and with that, showed me the door.
Yet another disappointment from Three as I was blankly told that they couldn’t do anything for me and I was best off going online. As with any new release from Apple, it seems like the red iPhone is in high demand so stocks are low, but to not have any or even offer to help out is very frustrating for the customer.

Product range: 0/5

Product knowledge: 0/5

Value knowledge: 0/5

Questioning ability: 2/5

Sales ability: 2/5

Shop appearance: 4/5

3: Carphone Warehouse

The Carphone Warehouse store is one of the most spacious I have been in and for the first time, I was able to see why the shops are laid out like this. There were displays on the right of the store for iPhone, Samsung and Google Pixel as well as one or two other manufacturers such as Huawei and Sony but at the centre of the room there was an open space that was – at least on my first visit – filled with people.
Again, due to the school holidays, the shop was too busy on my first visit but I tried later and was able to speak to GK and explained to him that I wanted the red iPhone after trying out Android and not liking what I bought.
GK knew exactly what I was talking about and asked me about my data usage as well as letting me know about the price match guarantee at Carphone.
He came back to me with a plan under EE for £46 per month for 6GB of data, unlimited call and texts providing that I paid £100 up front.
I told GK I was trying to gather as much information as possible and asked him to write down the tariff so I could compare it against the offerings from the networks. GK was only too happy to oblige but warned me that tariffs rarely stay the same for long and that it would definitely be different tomorrow. I agreed that I wouldn’t hold him to ransom but as he was finishing up his superior came over and told him to stop because tariffs change all the time.
I explained that I knew that and wasn’t going to hold it against him but she wasn’t in the mood to listen and threw the paper in the bin. GK then looked at me apologetically and repeated the tariff to me before I left.

Product range: 3/5

Product knowledge: 4/5

Value knowledge: 3/5

Questioning ability: 2/5

Sales ability: 2/5

Shop appearance: 3/5

2: Vodafone

A good enough showing from Vodafone on, frankly, a pretty poor day all round for the networks, however it did take a lot of loitering and hanging around until my presence was noticed by the one member of staff on the floor.
The shop was a narrow one with the usual, iPhone, Samsung, Vodafone broadband and device displays as well as the standard round table full of flagship devices at the front. I did notice the iPhone display was short of iPhones but overall the store was well furnished and well maintained.
As I mentioned, I did need to hang around and wait around for Carly, the assistant in attendance to glance up from her phone, taking in the best that the narrow shop had to offer but when she did notice me, I was afforded a smile and asked how she could help.
I explained that I was used to the iPhone but had taken a gamble on Android but it wasn’t working out. I also mentioned that I had seen the red iPhone and was ready to ditch my current handset for some of that action.
Carly was only too happy to oblige and subsequently went to check if they had any of the handsets in stock that were not already spoken for. On her return she told me I was lucky because there were only two handsets left that I could walk away with that day.
We then took a seat and talked business. After letting her know that I get through around 5GB of data a month, Carly came back to me with a plan for unlimited texts and minutes and the 5GB of data I requested for £53 per month with £100 upfront cost.
I was then told about the scheme under Vodafone that let me take advantage of a 15 per cent discount if I knew a friend or relative that work for the Police, NHS or fire service or any of the companies that sign up to the scheme.
Fortunately my mum is a nurse
and as a consequence I could receive the discount, bringing the price down to £45.05 per month for the same allowances and the £100 upfront price.
I then made my excuses and left with the tariffs written down and a good idea of what I would be paying for the device and plan I needed. Unfortunately, I was not asked about the different size of the device. This was disappointing as – given that I clearly had a larger phone – it seemed to be an obvious starting point.
Overall though, not a bad performance, when I was eventually seen I found Carly very informative and approachable and I think I would have walked away with a good deal.

Product range: 3/5

Product knowledge: 3/5

Value knowledge: 3/5

Questioning ability: 4/5

Sales ability: 3/5

Shop appearance: 2/5
1: O2

The O2 shop is not the biggest with displays all around the store impeding the room customers have to walk around. Two displays in the centre of the room for Apple and Samsung devices were flanked by a help desk on the left and other devices and consultation areas on the right.
I hung around the Apple display, hoping to catch someone’s eye and my plan worked a treat because Laszlo came bounding over to see what he could do for me.
I explained that I’d tried Android after years of loyal service to iPhone and didn’t like it so wanted to switch back with a red device.
Like a gun from a holster, Laszlo pulled out the exact device that I was looking for and said “this one” to which I agreed.
However, instead of going straight over to the tables, Laszlo took the opportunity to ask why I wanted to change and why I had a go with Android in the first place.
I replied by explaining that I was used to the way that iPhones are laid out and, although they are not very different, I was comfortable with that layout and I only went to Android because of the change in price.
Despite obviously being an Apple fan, it was good to see that he wanted to see what I didn’t like and, presumably work out whether a move away from Android was actually the best thing for me.
We made our way over to the table to figure out the best plan for me. Unfortunately there was no 7 Plus devices in stock but I could have walked away with a red iPhone 7 as they were in store.
Laszlo offered me a few plans, all with unlimited calls and texts but £58 for 5GB of data, £62 for 10GB of data or £67 for 20GB of data.
He then added that he could do nothing on the price so I made my excuses and left.
All in all, my trip to O2 was a refreshing one. Despite it being lunchtime on a hot spring day, I was still acknowledged as soon as I walked through the door and told how long the waiting time would be.
All of the devices on display were clean and void of fingerprints – not something I could say about the rival stores in Wood Green. The iPhones were even on display and near the door, whereas everywhere else had the display tucked away in the corner.
Laszlo was a very nice guy and easy to talk to. Of all the salespeople I encountered, Laszlo was the only one who didn’t immediately want to sign me up to a contract and, instead, listened to what I liked and disliked about Android so that I made the right decision.

Product range: 3/5

Product knowledge: 4/5

Value knowledge: 4/5

Questioning ability: 5/5

Sales ability: 4/5

Shop appearance: 4/5

Summary

iPhones are obviously one of the most popular devices on the market but it’s interesting how popular a single colour is.

Given that the Easter holidays may have just started, going to an EE shop at lunchtime on a sunny day may not have been the best idea Mystery Shopper has ever had.

I wasn’t given an explanation as to why Three could only cater to my needs online, I’d presume that they just didn’t have the stock yet.

GK from Carphone was in contention to win until his manager rained on his parade.

Carly from Vodafone took a while to approach me but when she did she was very helpful.

But Laszlo from O2’s knowledge and passion shone through as he swept the competition away.

5: Carphone Warehouse

Product range 2/5
Product Knowledge 0/5
Value Knowledge 0/5
Questioning ability 0/5
Sales ability 0 /5
Shop appearance 4/5

Total – 6/30

4: Vodafone

Product range 1/5
Product Knowledge 0/5
Value Knowledge 0/5
Questioning ability 1/5
Sales ability 1/5
Shop appearance 5/5

Total – 8/30

3: Three

Product range 3/5
Product Knowledge 2/5
Value Knowledge 4/5
Questioning ability 3/5
Sales ability 3/5
Shop appearance 3/5

Total – 18/30

2: O2

Product range 4/5
Product Knowledge 3/5
Value Knowledge 3/5
Questioning ability 4/5
Sales ability 3/5
Shop appearance 3/5

Total – 20/30

1: EE

Product range 5/5
Product Knowledge 5/5
Value Knowledge 4/5
Questioning ability 5/5
Sales ability 4/5
Shop appearance 4/5

Total – 27/30

Summary

Cameras on the back of devices are now a staple in the mobile and indeed, the tech world.

However, it was alarming to
me how little sales advisors know about the cameras in each device, especially given the fact that it is usually a boasting point for Apple, Samsung, Google, Huawei and Sony.

In fairness, I don’t know how well the staff are trained at Carphone Warehouse because they are woefully short of staff.

I got the impression that Sagar from Vodafone just wanted to get rid of me and Elijah couldn’t be bothered to get off his backside to help me out. I found a much better service at O2 and found Abdullah to be very helpful.

EE’s Rahul had a smile and knew his stuff – a perfect combination.

5: Virgin

Manner – 3/5
Understanding – 3/5
Knowledge – 2/5
Helpfulness – 2/5
Clarity – 3/5
Overall – 3/5
Total – 16/30

4: Vodafone

Manner – 3/5
Understanding – 3/5
Knowledge – 3/5
Helpfulness – 3/5
Clarity – 3/5
Overall – 3/5
Total – 18/30

3: O2

Manner – 4/5
Understanding – 3/5
Knowledge – 4/5
Helpfulness – 3/5
Clarity – 4/5
Overall – 4/5
Total – 22/30

2: EE

Manner – 4/5
Understanding – 4/5
Knowledge – 3/5
Helpfulness – 4/5
Clarity – 4/5
Overall – 4/5
Total – 23/30

1: Three

Manner – 4/5
Understanding – 5/5
Knowledge – 5/5
Helpfulness – 4/5
Clarity – 5/5
Overall – 5/5
Total – 28/30

Summary 

Full article in Mobile News issue 616 (June 13, 2016).

5: Carphone Warehouse

Payment knowledge – 2/5
Product knowledge – 2/5
Airtime knowledge – 2/5
Questioning ability – 1/5
Sales ability – 1/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 11/30

4: Vodafone

Payment knowledge – 3/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 3/5
Questioning ability – 2/5
Sales ability – 2/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 18/30

3: Three

Payment knowledge – 3/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 21/30

2: O2

Payment knowledge – 3/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 23/30

1: EE

Payment knowledge – 3/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 4/5
Sales ability – 5/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 24/30

Summary

5:Three

Product range – 1/5
Product knowledge – 2/5
Airtime knowledge – 1/5
Questioning ability – 1/5
Sales ability – 1/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 9/30

4: Carphone Warehouse

Product range – 2/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
Airtime knowledge – 2/5
Questioning ability – 2/5
Sales ability – 2/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 14/30

3: O2

Product range – 3/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
Airtime knowledge – 3/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 3/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 19/30

2: EE

Product range – 4/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 22/30

1: Vodafone

Product range – 5/5
Product knowledge – 5/5
Airtime knowledge – 5/5
Questioning ability – 4/5
Sales ability – 5/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 28/30

Summary

Full article in Mobile News issue 611 (April 04, 2016).

5: EE

Product range – 1/5
Product knowledge – 2/5
iPhone knowledge – 1/5
Questioning ability – 1/5
Sales ability – 1/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 9/30

4: Vodafone

Product range – 3/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
iPhone knowledge – 2/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 2/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 16/30

3: Three

Product range – 3/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
iPhone knowledge – 3/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 3/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 19/30

2: O2

Product range – 4/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
iPhone knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 4/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 23/30

1: Carphone Warehouse

Product range – 4/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
iPhone knowledge – 5/5
Questioning ability – 4/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 25/30

Summary

Full article in Mobile News issue 612 (April 18, 2016).

5: EE

Product range – 2/5
Product knowledge – 2/5
Airtime knowledge – 2/5
Questioning ability – 1/5
Sales ability – 1/5
Shop appearance – 3/5
Total – 11/30

4: O2

Product range – 3/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
Airtime knowledge – 2/5
Questioning ability – 1/5
Sales ability – 2/5
Shop appearance – 2/5
Total – 13/30

3: Carphone Warehouse

Product range – 3/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 3/5
Questioning ability – 3/5
Sales ability – 3/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 20/30

2: Vodafone

Product range – 4/5
Product knowledge – 3/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 2/5
Sales ability – 4/5
Shop appearance – 4/5
Total – 21/30

1: Three

Product range – 4/5
Product knowledge – 4/5
Airtime knowledge – 4/5
Questioning ability – 4/5
Sales ability – 5/5
Shop appearance – 5/5
Total – 26/30

Summary

The amount of videos, games and apps many phone users use these days mean that a measly 1GB of data isn’t enough for most users. Most need between 5GB and 10GB.

Idris from EE looked like he couldn’t really be bothered to answer my query.

Rory from O2 wasn’t that much better and his recommendations were really vague.

Alamin from Carphone’s honesty about the iPhones was refreshing.

Tommy from Vodafone picked up a shaky start with a solid sales technique.

Three’s George takes the crown, however, for giving me plenty of detail about the products and really giving me a personalised service.

Full article in Mobile News issue 599 (October 12, 2015).